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  • In front of their home crowds, the Panthers and Broncos are two of this week's strongest bets against the spread.
By Scott Gramling
November 23, 2018

After three Thanksgiving Day games, there's still plenty of football to devour in Week 12. Here are your betting plays for the Sunday afternoon games.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at Buffalo Bills

1:00 p.m. ET

• Buffalo is 5–1–1 against the spread at home when coming off a bye week since the start of the 2005 season.

• Over the total is 4–1 in games Buffalo has played against Jacksonville since the start of the 2011 season.

• The Bills are 3–0 straight up and 2–0–1 against the spread when coming off a bye since the start of 2015.

Side: Bills (+3.5)

Confidence Level: Moderate (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)

Total: Over 37

Confidence Level: Moderate


Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-11)

1:00 p.m.

• Baltimore is 1–10 against the spread as a home favorite of more than eight points since the start of the 2010 season.

• Under the total is 7–1 in the past eight November games Baltimore has played at home.

• Underdogs of more than 10 points are 11-4 against the spread since 2009 when coming off a road victory.

Side: Raiders (+11)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Under 42.5

Confidence Level: Moderate


San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)

1:00 p.m.

• San Francisco is 0–6 against the spread following a bye week since the start of the 2012 season.

• Over the total is 14–4 in games San Francisco has played following a bye week since the start of the 2000 season.

• Tampa Bay should be able to cut down on the turnovers with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick having been benched.

Side: Buccaneers (-3.5)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Over 55

Confidence Level: Low


New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

1:00 p.m.

• Philadelphia is 0-10 ATS under head coach Doug Pederson when facing a team with a defense that allows an average of at least six yards per play.

• Under the total is 5–2 in games the Giants have played at Philadelphia since the start of the 2011 season.

• The Eagles’ 41-point loss to the Saints on Sunday was the worst defeat ever suffered by a defending Super Bowl champion.

Side: Giants (+6)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Under 46

Confidence Level: Moderate


Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

1:00 p.m.

• Cincinnati is 7–1 against the spread in games played against Cleveland since the start of the 2014 season.

• Under the total is 6–2 in games Cincinnati has played against Cleveland since the start of the 2014 season.

• Cleveland is 0–5 against the spread in divisional games when coming off a bye week since the start of 2004.

Side: Bengals (-3)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Under 47.5

Confidence Level: High


New England Patriots (-9.5) at New York Jets

1:00 p.m.

• The Jets are 5–0 against the spread in home games played against New England since the start of the 2013 season.

• Under the total is 6–1 in games the Jets have played against divisional foes following a bye week since 2003.

• The Patriots have covered the spread in only two of their past 10 games against the Jets.

Side: Jets (+9.5)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Under 46.5

Confidence Level: Very High


Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

1:00 p.m.

• Carolina is 22–4 against the spread under head coach Ron Rivera when coming off a road loss.

• Over the total is 8–1 in Carolina games since the start of 2016 against teams that average at least 24 points per game.

• The Panthers have won 10 straight games at home while covering the spread in all but two of those games.

Side: Panthers (-3.5)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Over 47.5

Confidence Level: Very High


Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (-12)

4:05 p.m.

• Arizona is 8–0 against the spread when coming off back-to-back straight-up losses since the start of the 2016 season.

• Under the total is 10–1 in games the Chargers have played in the second half of the season under head coach Anthony Lynn.

• NFL teams coming off an upset loss to a divisional rival are 2-10 against the spread since the start of 2016.

Side: Cardinals (+12)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Under 44.5

Confidence Level: High


Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-8.5)

4:25 p.m.

• Miami is 0–8 against the spread in away games following a loss since the start of the 2016 season.

• Over the total is 8–3 in games Miami has played during the month of November over the past three calendar years.

• Miami comes into this one having lost each of its past four road games, and by an average margin of 20 points.

Side: Colts (-8.5)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Over 51

Confidence Level: Very High


Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Denver Broncos

4:25 p.m.

• Denver is 5–1–2 against the spread in games played against Pittsburgh since the start of the 2005 season.

• Under the total is 7–0–1 in Pittsburgh road games against teams with a losing record since the start of the 2016 season.

• Denver’s 4-1 against-the-spread mark in its past five games includes ATS wins vs. the Rams, Chiefs and Chargers.

Side: Broncos (+3.5)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Under 47

Confidence Level: Very High

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HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
OUT
HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
IN
Eagle (-2)
Birdie (-1)
Bogey (+1)
Double Bogey (+2)