Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Tennessee Titans
Sun., December 30, 1:00 p.m. ET
Three things you need to know before betting on Colts-Titans:
1. The first go-round of Indy-Tennessee this season took place in Week 11, with the Colts putting the hurt on the Titans in a 38-10 victory as 1.5-point favorites in Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts outgained the Titans by more than two yards per play in that game (6.6 to 4.5). Titans starting quarterback Marcus Mariota left late in the first half with an injury, but Tennessee already trailed 24-0 by that point. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, meanwhile, completed 23 of 29 passes for 297 yards and three touchdowns. He also threw no interceptions and took no sacks.
2. The Colts' win in Week 11 improved Luck's career record against the Titans to 10-0 straight up. Since Indy selected Luck first overall in the 2012 draft, the Colts have lost to Tennessee only twice, and both defeats came last season when Luck was sidelined with a shoulder injury. Indianapolis's record versus the Titans has been nearly as good against the spread, as the Colts are 10-3 ATS when facing Tennessee in the Luck era. The three ATS losses include the two losses in 2017 and a 35-33 win as three-point favorite in 2015.
3. Teams with a win percentage of between 51% and 60% are 1-12 against the spread in games with a line of between +3 and -3 since the start of the 2009 season when facing an opponent to which the team lost by 14 or more points earlier in the season. The Colts’ biggest weakness is a pass defense that has allowed opponents to complete 71.3% of their pass attempts this season—Tampa Bay is the only other NFL defense that’s allowing a completion rate of more than 70%. Tennessee, however, appears to lack the passing attack to be able to take advantage, as the Titans are 1-5 against the spread in the second half of a season since the midway point of 2016 when facing an opponent that allows a completion rate of at least 64%.
Pick: Colts -3
Confidence Level: High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)