Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-4)
Sun. 1/13, 1:05 p.m. ET
Three things you need to know before betting on Chargers-Patriots:
1. Two of the four AFC teams to win more than 10 games during the regular season meet on Sunday afternoon when the Chargers visit the Patriots. While New England played its final nine games of 2018 without facing a team that ended the regular season with more than nine victories, Los Angeles has road wins in Kansas City and Baltimore to its credit over the past four weeks. The Patriots did face a pair of nine-win teams over their recent nine-game stretch, and they lost both times, 34-10 to Tennessee in mid-November and 17-10 to Pittsburgh in mid-December. Pittsburgh is the one team that both the Patriots and Chargers faced last month, with L.A. winning 33-30 on the road against the Steelers in early December.
2. The Chargers have been dominant away from home lately, going 7-0 both straight up and against the spread in road games since the start of October despite the fact that they were favored in only two of those seven games. They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 10 points per game over the seven contests, winning by an average score of 27 to 17. The only two against-the-spread losses the Chargers have suffered in 13 road games against AFC opponents since relocating to Los Angeles came during the 2017 regular season, at Kansas City that December and in a 21-13 loss as a 6.5-point underdog in Foxboro that October.
3. Road underdogs coming off eight or nine wins in their previous 10 games are 5-0 against the spread this season. The Chargers have performed well against some of the NFL’s best offenses, going 5-0 against the spread this season when facing an opponent that’s completing at least 64% of its pass attempts, 5-0 against the spread when facing an opponent that’s averaging at least 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 5-1 against the spread when facing an opponent that’s averaging at least 375 total yards per game.
Pick: Chargers +4
Confidence Level: Moderate (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)