Week 12 Visionary Plays: Bold Fantasy and DFS Predictions
Rob Tringali
Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan, Falcons
The Bucs pass defense has been the worst in football all season. This matchup should allow Ryan to light it up and throw for a huge day. I can easily see him eclipsing 300 passing yards and throwing for multiple TDs. The Falcons have played inspired football over the past two weeks; there is no reason for that to end in Week 12 against Tampa.
Carson Wentz, Eagles
Put this one down as a strong hunch play. Often, to be contrarian, I look at who the best-perceived QB is of the week, and then I play his opposing counterpart. In this case, Russell Wilson is the highest priced QB on DraftKings, which makes me want to take a closer look at Wentz. If Wilson is going to have such a great day, it most likely will be in part because the game remains close throughout. If that's the case, why not take a shot on the lesser owned Wentz who gets Alshon Jeffery back this week against a Seahawks pass defense which has struggled in recent weeks. Last week's Eagles/Patriots game was a huge under in terms of overall points. This might be why this is an over this week—when you least expect it.
Baker Mayfield, Browns
Mayfield turned a corner in the first half of last week's game against the Steelers. He looked composed and made some excellent reads against a tough defense. However, in the second half, the Browns offense looked muddled and could not get out of its way. This week, they play the Dolphins. They are the fifth-worst team against opposing quarterbacks. This is a very winnable game for Mayfield and the Browns who need to win out all their games if they want to have any shot at making the playoffs. Expect Mayfield to throw for at least 250 passing yards and 2 TDs.
Sam Darnold, Jets
The Raiders have done an outstanding job of stopping the run in recent weeks, but they have been exceptionally generous against the pass. I think there is a realistic shot that this game is high scoring, and there is an equally good chance that Darnold throws for over 300 passing yards and at least two TDs.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara, Saints
Before last week's stellar defensive performance, the Panthers run defense had been one of the worst in football. This week, the Panthers get Kamara and the Saints on the road, and there is little doubt in my mind that Kamara will see at least 20 touches in this game. Interestingly enough, Kamara has not had a 100+ yard rushing day all season. I think he gets his first this coming Sunday.
Leonard Fournette, Jaguars
Nothing gets a fantasy owner more excited than when a real-life coach says that he needs to make sure that a certain player gets more touches. Recently, Doug Marrone chastised himself for not keeping Fournette involved enough in Week 11 and pledged to get him the ball more in Week 12. That is more than enough to ensure that he is a Visionary play this week.
Derrick Henry, Titans
The Jaguars have been extremely generous to opposing running backs over the past few games (especially last week when two Colts RBs ran for over 100 yards). This is perfect timing for Henry and the Titans who would love nothing more than to run the ball about 30+ times in this game and control the clock. If Henry can get started early, this could end up being one of those games where he goes for 120+ rushing yards and multiple TDs.
David Montgomery, Bears
It's put up or shut up time for Montgomery. The Bears RB has one of the best fantasy schedules from now through the fantasy playoffs. His owners were taking him in the third and fourth rounds of drafts, and it's time for him to live up to his billing. Luckily the Giants come to town, and they are allowing over 4.0 yards per carry. If the Bears want to win this one, they will need to make sure Montgomery is heavily involved.
Derrius Guice, Redskins
The only positive take-away from the game against the Lions was that Guice looked effective in his first game back from injury. Not only did he have a 45-yard reception for a TD, but he also looked impressive running the football. This week the Redskins play the Lions who are the worst team against opposing running backs. I know that the Redskins want to rotate Guice with Adrian Peterson, but at this point, Guice needs to get more reps. I think he gets 15-18 touches this week, which should be good enough for 90+ total yards and a TD.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones, Falcons
Once every season, Jones busts out and has a HUGE game of epic fantasy proportions. This week feels like one of those weeks. The Bucs are reeling in their secondary, and the Falcons are hitting their stride as a team. A Ryan-to-Jones hookup in seasonal leagues might win you the week, and in DFS, it might make you my rich friend.
D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks
With Tyler Lockett not at 100% and Josh Gordon still learning the offense, this seems to be a great week to start Metcalf. The Eagles are the fourth-worst team against opposing wide receivers, and Metcalf has turned into a nightmare one-on-one matchup due to his incredible size and speed combination. Metcalf is not only playable in PPR formats, and he has become one of the better starts in standard formats too.
Jarvis Landry, Browns
By now, you all should know how much I like the recency bias play, the hometown narrative, and my real favorite, the revenge narrative. Players love to play well against their old teams. This week Landry gets to play the Dolphins who just placed both their starting safeties on the season-ending IR earlier this week. Landry has been the one Browns player who has played well recently (24 receptions on 40 targets and 3 TDs in the past four games), and I fully expect him to have another big game on Sunday.
DeVante Parker, Dolphins
It seems somewhat crazy to have a Dolphins offensive player listed here, but Parker has been nothing less than sensational for the past few weeks. He has three TDs in that span, and in Week 11, he caught seven passes for 135 yards. Where is this motivation coming from? Parker will be a free agent after this season, and he is trying to get himself a big paycheck. The Browns should win this game handily, which should leave some good garbage time production available for Parker to keep padding his stats.
Tyrell Williams, Raiders
The Jets defense has been eerily similar to that of the Raiders this season. The Jets are solid upfront at stopping the run (they are a top ten defense against opposing running backs), but they struggle in pass coverage (they are the third-worst team against opposing wide receivers). If it wasn't for a bad holding call, Terry McLaurin beat the Jets secondary cold last week. Williams might not be as fast as McLaurin, but he is the type of player who usually gives the Jets secondary trouble. He has also underperformed in recent weeks and feels due for a rebound.
James Washington, Steelers
It looks as if JuJu Smith-Schuster will miss the game with a bad knee and concussion symptoms, so that should give Washington a chance to start against the lowly Bengals. Out of all the Steelers receivers, Washington has connected the best with Mason Rudolph (no surprise based on their college connection), and I can easily see him getting another five or six targets this week. Even better, is that Washington is the Steelers' best speed receiver, so if they are going to challenge the Bengals deep, he will be the one to make the play. Start him with full confidence in Week 12.
Tight Ends
Ryan Griffin, Jets
Oakland has been surprisingly tough on defense this season, but their biggest weakness is covering the opposing tight end (third-most points allowed). This works out perfectly for Griffin, who is slowly turning into Sam Darnold’s most trusted target. Griffin has struggled with concussion issues but has always had solid skills when he's been in the lineup. This matchup seems like a great week to use him. He should find the end zone in what will be a higher scoring game.
Vance McDonald, Steelers
The Bengals have been extremely generous to opposing tight ends, allowing over 55 yards per game. With Smith-Schuster out, there will be more targets available in the offense, and McDonald has become someone who Rudolph trusts (21 targets in the past three games). Look for him to have a great chance to have 15-20 fantasy points in this contest.
Cameron Brate, Bucs
OJ Howard is officially in Bruce Arians' doghouse, and I would be shocked if he returned to the team in 2020. It's a good thing that Brate is still around, as he will take over the starter’s role seamlessly. Jameis Winston has always loved to throw to Brate in the red zone, and last week he threw to him a whopping 14 times after Howard was taken out of the game. Look for Brate to continue thriving in this offense against the Falcons in Week 12.
Dallas Goedert, Eagles
With DeSean Jackson still out and Nelson Agholor less than 100 percent, the Eagles will once again ride with their two tight end sets against the Seahawks. Luckily, the Seahawks are the sixth-worst team against opposing tight ends, which should mean big things for Zach Ertz and Goedert. If you think that Pete Carroll will make sure that Ertz doesn't beat him, Goedert should be able to pick up the slack and make some plays. Goedert has three TDs in his last four games, and there is a good chance he could catch one this week as well.
More Advice From SI Fantasy
—Dr. Roto’s Week 12 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em to help with your toughest lineup decisions
—Frankie Taddeo’s top streaming options for the final week of byes
—Jaime Eisner’s stock watch tells you who’s trending up and down as the playoffs approach
—Jaime Eisner’s waiver wire pickups: Randall Cobb, Jonathan Williams, Jacob Hollister and more
—Frankie Taddeo’s droppables, with some big-name players you shouldn’t feel bad about cutting
—Bill Enright’s injury report takes a look at who is out how long
—Mark Deming’s target and snap report dives into the data to make some fantasy conclusions
