Conor Orr’s Wild-Card Takeaways: Lamar Jackson’s Contract Now a Lose-Lose Situation
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We are through the meat of Super Wild-Card Weekend. I’ll fall in line with NFL branding protocol this one time given that the games were, kind of, mostly, really super.
With Buccaneers-Cowboys still to come Monday night, here are 10 takeaways from what we’ve seen already in the opening round, and what you might have missed …
1. A lose-lose for Lamar Jackson, Ravens
As you might have heard Sunday evening, Jackson was not on the team’s flight to Cincinnati.
Here is the one thought I am absolutely, cement-level comfortable with on the Jackson situation: We knew negotiating without an agent against a team that was skeptical of your long-term prospects was never going to be easy, we knew it was going to get contentious and we knew it could end in both sides taking a proverbial L.
And that’s what’s happening.
Jackson wasn't able to return from a knee injury suffered against the Broncos in Week 13.
Mitch Stringer/USA TODAY Sports
If you find yourself firmly on one side of this argument or the other, I would urge you to think about it from the other person’s perspective to get a sense of how much of an emotional gridlock this can create.
I thought Jackson’s case was nicely laid out by Robert Griffin III, who “put it all on the line” in the playoffs with Washington in 2012, despite his knee not being 100%. His next six seasons saw a total of 27 starts. He was never the same player physically. He was locked in as a starter again only on the borderline-tanking Browns. Griffin was responding to Michael Vick, who encouraged Jackson to “brace up” his knee and just play. He encouraged anyone who thought that way to remove their head from their backside.
Jackson, who didn’t play Sunday against the Bengals due to a sprained PCL, is on the verge of securing generational wealth for himself and his family. I’m not speaking for him, but the Ravens have had a couple of years to commit to him financially and have not. They are asking him to do this one more thing, continuing to dangle the carrot, before they fork over the kind of money that will set him and future generations of Jacksons up for life. Perhaps in Jackson’s mind—if they were really going to do it—they would have already done it.
The Ravens, meanwhile, have probably been waiting to convince themselves that Jackson is the kind of player who can transcend the rigors of the position, and perform in a way that elevates Baltimore in the postseason. Jackson has one win in four playoff games and is 76 of 136 for 900 yards, three touchdowns and five interceptions. He had two spectacular rushing performances in those four postseason starts—both against the Titans—one resulting in a win and one resulting in a loss. Jackson is also asking for something commensurate with the fully guaranteed deal received by Deshaun Watson, which obviously came about under much different circumstances. Perhaps, in Baltimore’s mind, if Jackson was going to show them he was worth a long-term commitment that could yield sustainable postseason success, he would show them now.
The difficulty in all of this, of course, is the tiny machinations available to both sides. The Ravens, even indirectly, can make Jackson’s knee injury not seem as serious as it is by virtue of their daily updates and press conferences. Jackson can take the updates into his own hands, as he has done on Twitter.
We’re left to wonder whether Jackson, absent a contract, is heightening the seriousness of a knee injury or if Baltimore, minus a quarterback, is trying to downplay it. A true lose-lose.
2. The coaching carousel
- It sounds like the Cardinals may pivot toward outside hires, after all. Initially, the industry expectation was that Arizona was more than likely to promote defensive coordinator Vance Joseph and go with an in-house tandem of general manager candidates. That is still a strong option. But, depending on how the GM-hiring process goes, we could see the Cardinals bringing in new blood all around. This is considered a good job, but one where a GM and coach are going to have to work hand-in-hand with ownership and accept ownership having a voice in the process. It’s going to take the right candidate, which is what makes the in-house options worth considering, given that they already understand the power dynamics.
- The Panthers sound like a team that wants a young, dynamic, offensive-minded coach. I posted a little bit about this via Twitter on Sunday morning. The two names I’ve heard jump out of the process early: Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen. Johnson is considered a top candidate in multiple spots.
- The Broncos want experience. They are one of the teams that has received permission to interview Sean Payton, and one of the few teams that wouldn’t blink covering his salary demands. However, one has to wonder whether they have the draft capital. Jim Harbaugh and Dan Quinn make a lot of sense if they decide to pass on Payton.
- The Texans are casting a wide net and seem content with taking their time.
- At this point, it doesn’t seem to be out of the realm of possibility that the Colts could stick with Jeff Saturday. General manager Chris Ballard is running point on this search. It hasn’t sounded like owner Jim Irsay is backseat driving.
- A lot of questions have risen on the fate of Brandon Staley given the way in which the Chargers’ loss to the Jaguars ended Saturday night. This is my thought: I feel like Staley was considered safe after he reached the postseason. However, you have to consider the myriad dynamics at play here. We wrote a little bit about this in our December carousel primer. There’s a GM (Tom Telesco) who probably wonders what else he could do outside of assembling a top-five QB (Justin Herbert), a talented wide receiver tandem (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams), an explosive pass-rushing duo (Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack) and a very pricey secondary (Derwin James). There’s a coach who has dealt with a puzzling level of injury issues, whose aggressive, analytics-minded approach seemed to be tamped down in his second season and who may not be getting the support he needs. Then, there’s an owner who may not want to spend the kind of money it takes to lure a Sean Payton, even if Payton might want the job.
- We might see the Jets shoot for an offensive line coach before hiring the offensive coordinator. As we’ve written about in the past, especially if they still want to run something resembling outside zone, the OL coach is more important. The offensive line coach could also be the coordinator, depending on the scenario.
3. Kudos to Mike McDaniel
As reporters in this business, it’s very easy for us to provide empty compliments. I can’t remember how many times I’ve said this year, “Wow, X coach should really be considered for coach of the year.” But when it came time to actually vote for coach of the year, I couldn’t fit 23 people on the ballot. I voted for Brian Daboll (in our MMQB staff poll, not an official vote for the award), followed by Dan Campbell, Mike Tomlin, Pete Carroll and Nick Sirianni. After Sunday’s game, I wish I would have squeezed McDaniel in there somewhere. I feel like his candidacy was maligned by the fact that he’s an offensive guru with Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. But taking the Bills to the 11th hour with Skylar Thompson was incredibly impressive. As was his humanity during the Tua Tagovailoa concussion situation. While I don’t doubt the legitimacy of a report by longtime NFL reporter Armando Salguero that a shakeup was being considered, it would, to me, amount to absolute absurdity. McDaniel is a coach worth building around. I’m not too worked up over a handful of plays not getting in on time when called by a third-string quarterback. There were quarterbacks making more than $30 million per season this year who struggled to get calls in.
4. Jackson suitors?
Doubling back to Jackson, let’s ask ourselves a fascinating question: Who might be in the market for the five-year veteran? This is the question underneath everything. Would a team out there trade for Jackson? What would it cost and where does Jackson fit in the hierarchy of available passers?
We’re looking at an offseason with Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo available, among others. To be clear, I’m not listing this as a murderers’ row, as few of them are so good that they warrant a long-term extension in their current locale. Teams that need quarterbacks include the Jets, Dolphins (depending on the health of Tagovailoa), Raiders, Broncos, Titans, Colts, Texans, Commanders, Buccaneers, Saints, Falcons and Panthers.
There are four quarterbacks in the draft we could generously term first-round prospects, at the moment. That will knock out a few teams. I don’t see Jackson as an outside-zone quarterback. That knocks out the Jets and Dolphins (should the Jets try to stick with the system they drafted their last batch of offensive players for). There are three teams (Texans, Titans, Raiders) with Patriots ties and two quarterbacks (Garoppolo and Brady) with expertise running that offense. Obviously, the coaching carousel dictates a lot of this.
Still, with New Orleans, Atlanta, Washington and Carolina, many of the teams that entered the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes a year ago—and have therefore shown an interest in trading for a player who will command a monster contract—one would imagine there would be some interest there.
5. Bills’ moves paying off
Shakir had three receptions for 51 yards in the Bills’ 34–31 win over the Dolphins.
JAMIE GERMANO/USA TODAY NETWORK
Here’s something I’ve thought about a great deal as the Bills slog through the postseason: We’re going to see some of their under-the-radar moves, be it drafted players or otherwise, start to make the difference. Nyheim Hines returned two kicks for touchdowns last week. This week, clutch catches from Cole Beasley and fifth-round draft pick Khalil Shakir altered the course of the game. We often look at the postseason as a showcase for superstars, when, in reality, it is the new wrinkles incorporated by the coordinators designing this offense for the superstars that provide an edge. Shakir was one of my favorite players coming out of college and, despite playing just 29% of the team’s snaps to this point, has earned Josh Allen’s trust. Beasley is critical now that defenses are adjusting the way they treat Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
6. Officiating in the spotlight
There is an alternate universe where the Vikings are rolling into the playoffs thanks to a dropped Darius Slayton pass and one of the most horrendous roughing-the-passer calls I’ve seen—and that’s saying a great deal. I consider myself a bleeding heart when it comes to player safety and I do not long for more violence when it comes to football. I look at it more from a pragmatic way. These are panicked calls made by sometimes jumpy officials with vastly different interpretations of rules. When I put the hat of a lay fan on, I feel like it only deepens a cynicism that is hardening among the gambling public.
7. Dave Gettleman, reimagined
The former Giants GM drafted almost the entirety of this core. He saw something, perhaps not the same things that Brian Daboll has seen, in Daniel Jones. Enough to make Jones the No. 6 pick in the NFL draft. He also drafted Saquon Barkley, who was one of the three or four best running backs in the NFL this year. He drafted Andrew Thomas, who is among the five best offensive tackles in the NFL.
I have said this before, but I think a lot of Gettleman’s issue was that of perception and salesmanship. His vision for the Giants was not that different from Dan Campbell’s vision for the Lions, or even John Harbaugh’s vision for the Ravens, but it was just packaged differently. He delighted in combativeness with analytically minded folks and, yes, he drafted Barkley too high. But … on his way out, I seemed to remember a great deal of animus for Gettleman and less for the outgoing coaching staff, as if one was more at fault for the problems plaguing the organization. And it’s interesting to see how quickly the Giants changed course once they installed a more flexible and imaginative offense around the same players who were apparently not very good a year before. It’s almost as if we should let our hot takes cook like casu marzu, and not like a microwave burrito.
8. Postfranchise quarterback?
Purdy threw for 332 yards and three TDs as the No. 2–seeded 49ers advanced to the divisional round.
Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports
This weekend we saw Brock Purdy win a game, Skylar Thompson almost win a game and Tyler Huntley almost win a game. I wonder how long until we see a marked shift in the way teams take their swings at the quarterback position, knowing that you could be just as successful selecting from a broader pool of capable players instead of clay-pigeon shooting at a much narrower pool of perceived superhumans. We touched on this idea in a profile of Purdy a few weeks ago if you’re interested.
9. One more McVay thought …
We saw Aaron Donald change and unchange his bio identifying him as a member of the Rams. We saw McVay twice publicly mull walking away from the game for a little while. I think it’s important we continue to normalize life away from football. If the constant wrestling with the idea of playing or coaching is a negotiating tactic, all the more power to them. But, if there really is a doubt or uncertainty about walking away from the game, I think we should provide a larger platform to those who have done it successfully, and have found that elusive balance.
10. Some weekend reading
This was a busy weekend, and I wanted to catch you up on some of what I wrote during this Super Wild-Card Weekend.
• Here’s how you beat the 49ers.
• On Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville’s real, permanent rebirth.
• On Daniel Jones and our tendency to discard players too early in the NFL.
• On the Rams, Sean McVay and the backup plan that needs to be in motion.
