Why Mike Vrabel Can Pick and Choose What He Does Next
Hires incoming? We’ve got an interesting week ahead. And you had interesting questions …
From mac (@HOOKEM_titans): Why is Mike Vrabel’s next move flying under the radar? Could he land in Seattle or Kansas City if Andy Reid does in fact retire?
Mac, I don’t know that his name is flying under the radar so much as Mike Vrabel has the opportunity to be measured about all of this. He’s made money as a player and a coach. He’s the type of candidate who doesn’t necessarily need to strike while the iron’s hot—if he sits out the year, he’ll be every bit as appealing at 49 as he is at 48. So he can survey the market and pick his spots.
The Seahawks could be a potential fit for Vrabel.
Denny Simmons/The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network
Right now, I’d see the Seattle Seahawks, and GM John Schneider, as a potential match. It also fits how he’s running in some of these job races. With the Seahawks, if it’s not Dan Quinn, it could be Vrabel. It’s the same way with the Atlanta Falcons: If it’s not Bill Belichick, it could be Vrabel. And the same is true with the Los Angeles Chargers: If it’s not Jim Harbaugh, it could be Vrabel. And I think if the Philadelphia Eagles had made a change, he’d have been a name of interest there, too.
In my opinion, he’s as good a candidate as any. But some of the places he’d fit have very natural (and strong) candidates that they’re connected to. Maybe one of those jobs shakes free, and he lands in one of those spots. Maybe a team such as the Washington Commanders winds up with him (he and Adam Peters have a lot of common friends). Or maybe he takes a break.
However this plays out, I wouldn’t be too concerned about Vrabel’s future. He’ll be fine.
From Glen Phelps (@PhelpsGlen62041): Dan Campbell: He started 4–19. Since, he is 22-7. Has any other franchise since the 2021 season to now had that kind of turnaround?
Glen, the first one that popped in my head when I read this question was Jimmy Johnson a generation ago in Dallas. And sure enough, he started 4–22 as the Cowboys’ coach. Over the three-and-a-half years after that, he went 40–14 (47–15 including the playoffs) before things blew up in the spring of 1994 between he and Jerry Jones.
Another example might be Belichick, who was 6–14 in his first 20 games as coach of the New England Patriots, and then went 47–13 over his next 60 games (56–13 including playoffs in that stretch). Cincinnati Bengals coach Zac Taylor would be a recent example. He went 6–25-1 his first two years, and then 22–11 over the next two years.
So there are instances of quick turnarounds. But it doesn’t make what Campbell’s done any less impressive.
Fields is not viewed as a franchise-caliber quarterback in the NFL.
Mike Dinovo/USA TODAY Sports
From Ryan Cox (@MrRyanCox): Does the league (executives and coaches) view Justin Fields as a franchise-caliber QB? If the Bears move on, is it realistic to get a first-round pick in return?
Ryan, I think if the question is yes or no on Fields being a franchise quarterback, then the answer would probably be no at this point. But what guys such as the Detroit Lions’ Jared Goff and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield can show us is these things shouldn’t be seen so black and white—there are shades of gray that mark decisions on the most important position on the field (even if the high price for a former first-round quarterback’s second contract complicates that), and development doesn’t stop after two or three years.
On Fields, specifically, what his coaches at Ohio State would tell NFL folks was that he just needed to play. The hope was with more reps, a highly intelligent young quarterback would start to see the game faster, and play faster from the pocket. And if that happened, and you could add it to Fields’s natural throwing and running ability, then you’d be cooking.
That progress has come. But it just hasn’t come fast enough to alter conventional NFL wisdom on what the Chicago Bears should do with a generational type of talent available to them with the first pick in the draft, especially when that generational talent will be on a rookie contract through 2027. So, yeah, Fields should have some value to someone else the way that Goff and Mayfield did. And the Bears probably will have USC’s Caleb Williams at QB in ’24.
From Trevor Michaels (@trevmikewrites): Why are NFL regular-season games aired at 1 p.m. and 4 p.m., but the playoffs are totally different times?
Trevor, in the regular season, there are three windows Sunday (four when games are played in Europe), and that necessitates an earlier start time for the first window. That window doesn’t rate as well because fewer people are watching television in the middle of the day than in the late-afternoon or evening hours.
So without a third window, the NFL is pushing games back into broadcast windows that’ll rate better, and be more palatable to a national audience (remember, that 3 p.m. Eastern Ravens–Chiefs game Sunday starts at noon on the West Coast).
From Diego Ruiz G (@diegoruizgg1): If Jim Harbaugh is, indeed, hired by the Chargers, what is the likelihood of retaining Kellen Moore? Will he bring his own baggage (OC/DC)?
Diego, I’d say the likelihood would be low. My guess is Harbaugh would bring his defensive coordinator from Michigan, Jesse Minter, to Los Angeles with him. I think his offensive coordinator, Sherrone Moore, probably succeeds him at Michigan, though the NCAA entanglements might make that a little less than 100% certainty. And, then, I think someone he’s worked with before such as Greg Roman (at Stanford and San Francisco, and for John Harbaugh in Baltimore) comes aboard to run the offense.
This, by the way, is the right thing. If you’re going to hire someone such as Harbaugh, you go all in on him.
The Seahawks have an interest in Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald.
Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports
From Owen Loves the Seahawks (@Sexmal33): Will Seahawks request an interview with Mike Macdonald?
Owen, I know Schneider and the Seahawks are being open-minded with the process. Giants OC Mike Kafka is interviewing today, Raiders DC Patrick Graham interviewed Tuesday and Cowboys DC Dan Quinn, Rams DC Raheem Morris and Panthers DC Ejiro Evero will interview over the next three days, in that order. So all of those guys are clearly in the mix. But that’s not it for Seattle as management sorts through all of this.
I’d keep both your guy Macdonald, and Lions OC Ben Johnson on the list here, too. Johnson already interviewed once with Seattle, and can’t have a second interview with the team until after the NFC title game. Things are more complicated with Macdonald.
Because Seattle’s split with Pete Carroll didn’t happen until later in the week after the season ended, the window to interview coaches with the bye teams (over that first playoff weekend) came up very fast. That made it tough to get to Macdonald during the first round before his interview window closed. And now, because they haven’t had a first interview with him already, they have to wait until after the Ravens’ season ends to meet with him (only second interviews are permissible for Super Bowl teams next week).
That said, it’s known in NFL circles that Seattle has an interest in Macdonald. So stay tuned.
From Standard Bitcoin (@TheStandardBTC): How does Shane Waldron hiring affect Fields vs. Williams?
Standard, I don’t think it has much of an impact. Waldron’s offense worked for both Russell Wilson and Geno Smith, who are different kinds of quarterbacks, and he came from the Los Angeles Rams, where he’d worked with Jared Goff. Before that, it was Kirk Cousins in Washington.
I’d actually say that’s probably one of the things that attracted so many teams to Waldron in the first place—he’s demonstrated that he can win with different types of quarterbacks. So you could look at his experience with Wilson and say he’d be able to build a sensible quarterback run game, and tie it to the pass game, for Fields; and also that his experience with guys who came up in the Air Raid, like Goff and Smith, would help him with Williams.
Falcons owner Arthur Blank has wanted Belichick from the jump.
Damian Strohmeyer/Sports Illustrated
From Ocho (@ocho_bingo): Belichick has only interviewed with the Falcons—is no other team interested? Or is he waiting out potential coaches to retire i.e. Andy Reid? Why isn’t he more involved with interviewing?
Ocho, I remember asking around in the fall about what the market would be for Belichick, and the answer, pretty uniformly, was that there would be a market for the greatest coach of all-time, even at 71 years old (he’ll be 72 in April). But a lot of those takes came with a caveat: Teams would love to have Belichick as a coach, but that the trouble could be if landing him required a lot more than that.
Would another team hand him control over the roster after how the Patriots have sputtered post–Tom Brady? Would an ownership group pledge to hand the keys to the coach, and stay out of the way? These are the sorts of questions that could shift market conditions.
I think, to be clear, Falcons owner Arthur Blank wanted Belichick from the jump. What’s less clear is where the rest of the organization stood on the idea of hiring a guy who could make changes to staff and structure. And that’s where those big-picture questions come into play. It’s not hard to see where some turf protecting could be happening, which, again, goes right back to the nuance that was always going to exist with Belichick’s market.
From Raider EJ “Big E” (@edreyfit): The Raiders have the 13th pick. What are realistic options at QB? Best-case and worst-case scenarios?
Big E, I’d say there are two clusters of quarterbacks atop this year’s draft class. The first group won’t be available at 13, while the second group, you will have opportunities.
The first group, at this early point, is comprised of Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. I think all three of those guys are probably gone within the first five-or-so picks, and they could wind up going 1–2–3. After that, I think you’ll have, in some order, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. I could see one or more of those guys going in the top 20. I could see any of them sliding out of the first round, too. But part of that is because we still have three months to go.
So for your Raiders, I think it’s either a trade up, or maybe winding up with McCarthy, Nix or a Penix. It’s possible you could trade down and get one of those guys, or even wait until the second round. Like I said, there’s a lot of time left to see what unfolds, and I know, personally, I still have a lot to learn on where teams and the league as a whole see these guys going.
From Joey Bag of Donuts (@joeybagovdonuts): Do owners often ask outside consultants or other owners how their franchise is doing and if they should get rid of the head coach?
Joey, it’s pretty common that search firms are involved at this time of year—Jed Hughes and Korn Ferry didn’t wind up becoming so synonymous with coaching searches without reason. Their value, to me, is often in the background work they do, and are able to get to teams, so they can hit the ground running in what’s very much a frenzied process.
To me, the problem is when owners use them as a shield, and someone to point at when things go the wrong way. Which, unfortunately, does happen with some who are less than confident in their own ability to get it right.
Evero could be a potential replacement for Barry in Green Bay as defensive coordinator.
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
From Caleb (@TheBrickMamba): When should Packer fans expect a decision about our DC?
Caleb, that decision is here. Joe Barry is out. And, thus, I’ll give you two names to keep an eye on as to who might wind up replacing Barry.
One is Titans defensive pass-game coordinator Chris Harris, the former Bears safety. Harris did great in his interview for the job that Barry landed in 2021 (Harris was DBs coach in Washington at the time). The other is Evero, who worked with Matt LaFleur at the Rams. The issue with Evero is that he’s still, again, a head-coaching candidate in a few spots, and the Panthers, who are paying him very well, may be hesitant to let him go meet with other teams before their own coaching search is closed.
Now, if there’s a big swing out there, there’s the obvious connection between Vrabel and LaFleur from a few years back. But that’s probably less realistic than LaFleur going and getting Harris or Evero.
