49ers Free Agency: The Cap Gets a Big Bump
Projections for the NFL’s salary cap in the 2024-25 season were initially set at $242.5 million. The NFL just announced the new cap at $255.4 million. This is due to clubs repaying loans from the league during Covid, and a record year in TV money.
Since the league is trying to smooth out the cap’s growth, it may be that a $30 million annual jump can be expected going forward in the next few years.
What does this mean for the 49ers?
Cap guru Jason Hurley of 49erscap.com thought after contract restructuring the Niners would have about $12-14 million to spend for one big swing in free agency. With the unexpected $13 million bump that can go over $25 million now, if the Niners choose to do so.
OUT OF REACH
The Niners can’t afford the top-of-market free agents. Chris Jones is expected to get at least $28 million per, the threat is if he signs with Detroit, who has a ton of cap room. Josh Allen coming off a huge year in Jacksonville, and Brian Burns the consistently great edge in Carolina, are out of reach. Burns is asking for $27-30M per. Danielle Hunter is expected to get a 3-year deal at the $20M per he is paid now. The length of the deal would be the Niners’ concern.
EDGE
A veteran edge makes sense as the 49ers have missed in the draft, but edges in free agency are overpaid and the Niners try to avoid that.
The top reasonably priced free agent edge target would be 26-year-old Jonathan Greenard of Houston, with a projected market value of 13M per. He had 12.5 sacks last year with 15 tackles for loss, 22 quarterback hits, and he finished in the top ten in pass rush win rate. He also ranked eighth against the run and sets the edge well.
Greenard has a fast first step but not an arsenal of moves, he’s there to clean up after his teammates. An edge setter against the run who can pick up opportunity sacks fits the Niners' job description. The Texans will overpay to keep him so this would be a bidding war. One worth winning.
The Jets’ Bryce Huff is only 25 and has proven his pass rush potential with 10 sacks and 33 pressures this year. He’s a designated pass rusher as Huff is weak against the run and that hurts his asking price. Spotrac estimates his free agent market value at 9.2M per, but that seems low to me.
Jadeveon Clowney had an excellent year for Baltimore. At 31 he’s shopping for the highest one-year deal, which fits what the Niners would want. Clowney had 9.5 sacks with two forced fumbles, and his best year in pressures. Spotrac places his market value at 7.2M.
LINEBACKER
The timeline for when Dre Greenlaw could return is unknown. Some doctors believe he can return for the season opener, some say six months into the season, and others indicate it will be a year before Greenlaw is back to who he was.
Greenlaw’s backup Oren Burks was targeted for nine completions by Patrick Mahomes. Rookies Jalen Graham and Dee Winters didn’t earn the opportunity to play outside of special teams. So linebacker could be a possibility in free agency or the draft.
Azeez Al-Shaair returning to the Niners is a popular choice of fans. The concern is where things stand with Shanahan, as he and Al-Shaair had some problems in the past. Al-Shaair's market value would be $11-13M.
Carolina’s Frankie Luvu is the league sack leader for linebackers over the past two years at 9.5, he had 5.5 sacks last season while leading the Panthers in tackles at 125. He’s in his prime at 27 with a projected market value of $11-13M.
There are good options in free agency for cheaper role-playing linebackers. Kansas City’s Drue Tranquill had a combined 15 tackles against Baltimore and Buffalo in the playoffs and was a clutch playmaker. Houston’s Blake Cashman is solid against the run and the pass. Josey Jewell had over 100 tackles with three sacks and three passes defensed for Denver.
DEFENSIVE BACK
Chicago is expected to franchise-tag Jaylon Johnson. Kansas City’s L’Jarius Sneed should be the top corner on the open market and get paid $16-20M per.
For the Niners, the need is a physical DB2 that can shut down receivers and play the run well. That’s best found at the end of the first round in the draft, with a few diamonds available on Day 2. The skillset profile isn't there in free agency.
TIGHT END
Should George Kittle get hurt next year the Niners don’t have a tight end that could step in as a receiver. They could land one in free agency, but the top option in Houston’s Dalton Schultz would be too expensive for a backup TE at $11M per. Cheaper options could include Hunter Henry and Noah Fant.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Shanahan sees OL as a cap savings center and is unlikely to shop in free agency, particularly when the draft has so many quality players available for far less money.
