The 49ers have a choice.
They can take take the third-best quarterback in the upcoming draft and hope he becomes a franchise guy, or trade for Aaron Rodgers and win a Super Bowl next season.
Hmmm. Tough one.
It seems like the 49ers' top choice earlier this offseason was to trade for Deshaun Watson, because he's elite and young. No brainer. But now his career is in jeopardy and he might not even play next season, so it seems like the 49ers have panicked and pivoted to Plan B -- trade for the No. 3 pick.
And sure, it's possible the 49ers will land a bona-fide franchise quarterback they can build around for the next 15 years at that spot.
But the odds aren't in their favor. The past 20 years, 59 quarterbacks have been drafted in Round 1, and only 15 truly have lived up to expectations. Which means three out of four first-round quarterbacks do not live up to expectations, i.e. the 49ers have a 75 percent chance to be disappointed by whichever quarterback they draft.
So instead of gambling the No. 3 pick on a such a longshot, the 49ers should use it to acquire a sure thing. And Rodgers is the ultimate sure thing. He's one of the best quarterbacks alive, and he would have a better chance than anyone else the 49ers can get to lead them to a Super Bowl victory in 2021.
Last year, the Packers drafted quarterback Jordan Love in Round 1 -- they have to move on from Rodgers eventually, just as they moved on from Brett Favre. The 49ers could offer the Packers the No. 3 pick, plus Jimmy Garoppolo and anything else it would take to get the deal done.
Rodgers should finish his career on the 49ers -- he's from Northern California and he went to Cal. It's only right that he would deliver the Niners their sixth Super Bowl trophy.
He's worth the price.