What Deebo Samuel is Worth in a Trade

The 49ers reportedly want a "king's ransom" for Deebo Samuel, which probably means two first-round picks.

But the 49ers almost certainly won't get two firsts for Deebo. Why? Because he's worth roughly the same as Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, both of whom got traded this offseason, and neither one got traded for more than one first-round pick.

The Packers traded Adams for a first-rounder and a second-rounder -- picks 22 and 53. According to the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, those two picks roughly are worth the equivalent of pick 13.

The Chiefs traded Hill for a first, a second and a fourth this year (picks 29, 50 and 101), plus a fourth and a sixth next year. And when you add up all of those picks, they're worth roughly the equivalent pick 13.

So that pretty much is what Sameul is worth -- one first-round pick right outside the top 10. Not two first-round picks, unless both are at the end of the first round (the Chiefs own picks 29 and 30).

It will be interesting to see what the 49ers do with Samuel. Will they insist he's worth more than the market says he's worth, and then hold onto him until his value drops? Because that's exactly what they've done with Jimmy Garoppolo. They think he's worth two second-round picks, but he probably isn't worth even one third-round pick at this point.

The 49ers have essentially a week to trade Samuel for a fair return in the upcoming draft. If they don't trade him by next Saturday, things could get ugly.