Why the 49ers are Legitimate Super Bowl Contenders

Lance is the key this season. Because the 49ers have proven they can't quite win the Super Bowl with Garoppolo, although they came extremely close.

When the 2022 schedule first came out, I thought the 49ers would win nine games and miss the playoffs. But things have changed, and now they're legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Here's why.

The 49ers have had a top-notch roster since 2019. But as good as it is, they still struggled when Jimmy Garoppolo got injured and Nick Mullens was the replacement in 2020, because Mullens is a backup, and the 49ers can't win without a starting-caliber quarterback.

Four months ago, it seemed Trey Lance would be the starter and Nate Sudfeld would be the 49ers backup quarterback. Sudfeld is no better than Mullens. So if Lance were to get injured and miss a few games, which he might because he's going to run the triple option, then the 49ers probably wouldn't win without him.

But now Jimmy Garoppolo is the backup quarterback, and the 49ers have won nearly 70 percent of their regular season games when he has been the starter. So if Lance were to go down for a month, they could survive with Garoppolo until Lance returns.

But Lance is the key this season. Because the 49ers have proven they can't quite win the Super Bowl with Garoppolo, although they came extremely close. Which means if Lance is just slightly better than Garoppolo, the 49ers can win it all.

We don't yet know if Lance will be a better passer than Garoppolo -- last season, Garoppolo was slightly more efficient, as his passer rating was 98.7, and Lance's was 97.3.

But passing is secondary on the 49ers -- they're a run-first team. They go as far as their running game takes them. And their run game should be drastically better with Lance at quarterback than with Garoppolo, because Lance is a big threat to run, plus he wants to throw deep. Meaning he opens the field for the running backs, while Garoppolo constricts it. 

Last season when Garoppolo was the quarterback, starting running back Elijah Mitchell averaged a respectable 4.5 yards per carry. When Lance was the quarterback, Mitchell averaged a phenomenal 5.4 yards per carry. Huge difference.

Last season, the 49ers run game faded in the playoffs, as Mitchell averaged just 3.1 yards per carry in three postseason games. And the offense as a whole averaged just 2.5 yards per carry in the NFC Championship loss to the Rams, a team the 49ers typically run right over. 

It's fair to wonder if Mitchell and the run game would have performed better down the stretch if Lance had been the starter. Who knows, maybe the 49ers would have won the Super Bowl last season if Lance had continued to play following his Week 17 win over the Texans, a game in which his passer rating was 116 and Mitchell's rushing average was 5.7 yards per carry.

This season, the 49ers should have their best rushing attack since Kyle Shanahan has been the head coach, and potentially the best rushing attack in the NFL. Which means they should have a golden opportunity to win the Super Bowl.

Heady stuff.