Why the 49ers will Beat the Patriots
The 49ers saved their season last Sunday with a win over the Los Angeles Rams.
Now they have to save it again.
This Sunday's game against the New England Patriots will be another must-win game. Because the following Sunday the 49ers will fly to Seattle to play the Seahawks -- meaning the Niners will play another road game after a cross-country trip. Practically a scheduled loss.
If they lose to the Patriots, the 49ers could be 3-5 real quickly.
It's a must-win game for the Patriots, too. They've lost two games in a row and haven't lost three in a row since 2002. If they lose to the 49ers, they drop to 2-4 and their season will be over, too.
Tough spot for the 49ers.
But they haven't lost yet. In fact, they're going to beat the New England Patriots on Sunday in Foxboro and here's why:
1. The 49ers have a better run defense than the Patriots.
Both teams want to avoid passing as much as possible. And both teams run the ball extremely well. So run defense will be critical. And the 49ers have given up the 10th-fewest rushing yards in the league this season while the Patriots have given up the 16th-fewest rushing yards.
The 49ers have an elite linebacker tandem -- Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw -- while the Patriots have a couple guys named Ja'Whaun Bentley and Josh Uche. The 49ers will exploit those guys in lots of ways.
2. The 49ers have better pass catchers than the Patriots.
Patriots head coach and defensive mastermind Bill Belichick will make it his business to shut down George Kittle -- that's obvious. But the 49ers have so many other players they can give the ball to, players such as Kyle Juszczyk, Ross Dwelley, Jerick McKinnon, JaMycal Hasty, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and Richie James Jr. The 49ers can win without forcing passes to Kittle.
49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh will make it his business to shut down Julian Edelman -- that also is obvious. And the Patriots have no dangerous pass catchers other than Edelman. They can't win without forcing him the ball. He is their entire passing game, and the 49ers can shut him down by double-covering him. Simple.
3. The 49ers have a more accurate quarterback than the Patriots.
If the game becomes a pocket-passing contest, the 49ers will win it, because Jimmy Garoppolo is far more accurate than Cam Newton.
Even when Newton completes pass, his throw is off target. Every time he drops back, his first and best option is to scramble. If the 49ers can contain him in the pocket and double cover Edelman, Newton will have nowhere to go. And even if he does find an open receiver, chances are he'll overthrow him.
4. The 49ers have a spy for Cam Newton.
It's difficult to contain a supreme athlete such as Newton in the pocket for an entire game. Eventually, he'll escape and someone will have to chase him down.
And the 49ers have the perfect man for the job -- linebacker Fred Warner. He's the best player on their defense and arguably the best middle linebacker in the NFL. He should spy Newton and hit him hard if he scrambles. Make him think twice about running. Make him tap out like he tapped out in the Super Bowl against the Denver Broncos.
5. The 49ers have a comparable coaching staff to the Patriots.
No one outcoaches the Patriots, but the 49ers will hold their own. Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh are two of the smartest coaches in the league and they'll have their players ready for this playoff-type game.
Shanahan has faced Belichick three times, and each time Shanahan's offense has scored fewer points than the previous game. Which means Belichick has begun to figure him out.
Shanahan must adjust. Must have a Plan A and a Plan B. Because once Belichick sees Plan A, he will adjust and shut it down like he did in the Super Bowl when Shanahan was the Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator. This time, Shanahan must adjust to Belichick's adjustments. And if Shanahan does that, the 49ers will win.
Final score: 49ers 20, Patriots 17.
