Will the 49ers Cage the Cardinals to Remain Undefeated?
The Arizona Cardinals are 1-2, but are coming off of a big 28-16 upset victory over the Dallas Cowboys.
Many were surprised, but maybe they should not have been, since the Cowboys were missing 80% of their starting offensive line. Three of them are All-Pros. Their line is normally the strength of their offense. When healthy, they are widely considered to be one of the best groups of blockers in the NFL, along with the Eagles', the Chiefs', and the Lions' offensive lines. Not only is there a huge drop-off in talent to the next men up, but there is also a massive loss of continuity. Offensive linemen need to play together for long periods of time in order to gel or gain continuity. This enables them to learn how the blocker next to them will act and react in every situation. This can take weeks, or sometimes even months, to achieve. Right off the bat, the Cowboys were going into Arizona at a big disadvantage.
Last Thursday, September 21, the Cowboys' superstar cornerback Trevon Diggs tore his ACL in practice. He was their second-best defender and arguably their third-, fourth-, or fifth-best player overall. Diggs, when healthy, is one of the best lockdown cornerbacks in the league. He is normally able to shut down the primary receiver on one side of an offense to let the rest of the Cowboys defense focus on covering the other side of the field. This was another sizable disadvantage since there was only one practice between Thursday and the game on Sunday for Dan Quinn, the Cowboys defensive coordinator, to adjust to Diggs' absence - a nearly impossible task.
Many thought that the Cardinals were tanking for Caleb Williams, the superstar quarterback of the USC Trojans, who is believed to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft. Instead, the Cardinals have started fast in all three games in 2023 and held onto leads late into every game.
The Cowboys lost to the Cardinals the last two times these teams played. On January 2nd of 2022, the Cards won 25 to 22. On October 19th of 2020, the Cardinals won easily by 38-10. The Cardinals have recent dominance over the Cowboys.
The top three edge players in the NFL are: Nick Bosa, T.J. Watt, and Myles Garrett. While Micah Parsons had a higher pass rush win rate than anyone in 2022, he doesn't play edge 100% of the time.
Dedicated edge players typically line up against left tackles or right tackles, who are often the best pass blockers. Parsons blitzing from any position off the line of scrimmage made it more difficult for offenses to assign the best blockers, or multiple blockers, to try to slow him down.
A big reason Dan Quinn resisted Parsons as a dedicated edge player was his lack of skill in defending the run. Apparently, Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing knew this as well, as he ran 233-pound running back James Conner relentlessly at 245-pound Parsons for 98 of the Cardinals' 222 total rushing yards.
The Cardinals also threw for 191 yards, to combine for a whopping 424 total yards of offense.
Neither Brock Purdy, nor Josh Dobbs has thrown an interception this season. The 49ers defense has five interceptions, while the Cardinals defense has three. Both defenses have had at least one interception in every game. Something has to give here.
This is an NFC West divisional game and it's also a trap game, which is when a team such as the 49ers overlooks a weaker opponent such as the Cardinals in Week 4, while looking ahead to a stronger team in Week 5, such as the Cowboys. It's definitely possible that the 49ers can lose.
Jauan Jennings is doubtful. Deebo Samuel, Elijah Mitchell, and Dre Greenlaw are all questionable. I think Samuel will suit up, but I'm not certain how much or how well he will play. This will likely be a big opportunity for Ronnie Bell, who played very well against the Giants. Ray-Ray McCloud should get more action. Receiver Willie Snead and cornerback Kendall Sheffield have been elevated from the practice squad for added depth.
I'm predicting big games from George Kittle and Nick Bosa. The 49ers will cage the Cards to avoid getting trapped.
As always, I will reply to this article with my official score prediction about an hour prior to kickoff, once we know exactly who will play and who won't.
