How Position Bias Drives the 49ers' Drafts

The Niners are knocked for reaching in the draft, but that doesn’t just come from locking in on a player; they also lock in on positions. This year, the two most expensive free agent signings and the first draft pick, all at wide receiver.

Since Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch took control in 2017, where have the Niners invested their draft capital? Assign seven points for a first-round pick, six for the second, and so on, down to one point for a 7th rounder.

It’s no scoop that Shanahan overvalues wide receiver, but the numbers are revealing.

Receiver draft capital is 145% of defensive back, the #2 priority. Both positions have been drafted every year but once during this regime. Shanahan’s priorities are clear in this comparison: combine all the offensive line positions and safety: 63 points; wide receiver alone: 58.

It’s expected that a Shanahan-led team will prefer receiver, but to this extent it leads to roster holes. Five first and second round picks at WR, four at edge, two at DT. The rest of the positions are zero or one.

Entering the draft, the Niners had three primary matchup and execution weaknesses on the field: pass rush, power at left guard against Seattle in the run game, and pass coverage at safety. Due to the position bias, left guard wasn’t addressed until the late 4th and safety was ignored. Selective team building comes at a cost.

The Niners have been criticized most for their drafting in the last five years; does that lead to a competitive disadvantage? Not necessarily, since the team is carried by drafts from 2021 back and the trades for Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams. The concern is that the recent drafts have only produced one impact player in Brock Purdy.

Looking at NFC West rivals Seattle and the Rams, the Niners’ overinvestment at wide receiver jumps out again, more than the Seahawks and Rams combined. Part of that is LA finding Puka Nacua late, but both teams have done more with less.

At safety, Seattle invests 50% more than the Niners with two seconds, and they land Nick Emmanwori along with Bud Clark in this draft. The Niners haven’t invested a first or second-round pick at safety throughout this ten-year regime, once more showing their position bias in the draft.

The rivals invest much more in the offensive line, plus LA with smart selections at tight end, while Seattle put more into running back with early picks. The Seahawks' lack of position bias gives them the flexibility to make early picks to address holes across the roster, filling execution weaknesses.

In addition to position bias, patterns emerge with scheme fit profiles. For example, all eight offensive linemen taken from 2022 on have run the 20 shuttle in under 4.75 or the 40 under five seconds.

When speed is the focus, the current need for power at left guard is limited to players that have run under 4.75 in the 20 shuttle. The root cause of the execution mismatch likely goes unaddressed.

The Niners have drafted talented players, but since 2022 there has been a noticeable drop-off in impact compared to 2021 and earlier. Wide receiver is overvalued, and the early pick investment outside of WR, Edge, and DT is too light. History indicates that position bias is unlikely to change, but it may need to evolve in the loaded draft next year with impact players at tackle, running back, tight end, and safety.

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