Where the 49ers' Draft Process Falls Short

I’m higher on this draft than most; I believe De’Zhaun Stribling, Romello Height, Gracen Halton, and Ephesians Prysock will be contributors. My concern is with the priorities that led to the other picks.

When the Niners' draft process is criticized, the pushback is they won 12 games last year and look at the past success. But who led that success? Draft picks from 2021 and back, the trades for Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams, and the free agents that worked out.

Other than Brock Purdy, who has been an impact draft pick from 2022 to 2024? 2022: Purdy and Nick Zakelj, a career backup unlikely to make the 53-man roster this year. 2023: Ji’Ayir Brown, an up and down career likely to be let go at the end of the year. 2024: A solid starter in Dominic Puni, two good, not great players in the secondary, and Ricky Pearsall can’t stay healthy.

Three years, 26 picks: one impact player, one solid starter, two average starters. Four successful picks out of 26, a 15% hit rate. Ok, why? Where is the process falling short?

Replacements over matchups

Stribling replaces Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, a hybrid of both. Height replaces Bryce Huff. Kaelon Black replaces Brian Robinson; Carver Willis replaces Spencer Burford. The shopping list focused on replacing who left, more than addressing the matchups where they are losing on the field.

To the Niners' credit, one primary execution weakness was addressed in the woeful pass rush. The defensive line is now complete. However, two main matchup problems were not resolved.

The team's execution problems start on the offensive line. The Niners can’t drive the Seattle defensive tackles off the line. The draft pick is a tackle with speed moving inside, as the Niners once again focused on a fast 20 shuttle time, 4.71 by Carver Willis.

The problem is power; the pick is speed. The draft offered several options, including guards with both speed and power like Jalen Farmer, passed over.

The 49ers must go through the division to get a ring, yet after the draft, they are no closer to solving the Seattle matchup problem in the trenches.

The next execution concern is poor pass coverage at free safety. Marques Sigle had a QB rating against of 133. But no safety is picked. The UDFA addition is Jalen Stroman, a 4.70 run stuffer, weak in pass coverage. Free agency is dry; there are no options left. The proven hole at free safety, completely ignored.

The execution needs fall through the cracks when the pick is made by a coach focused on scheme fits, or no pick is made at all due to the position biases of Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch. Shanahan takes the two biggest swings in free agency at wide receiver, then drafts another with the first pick. Imbalanced team building.

Why is drafting for scheme fit over matchups a problem?

Because the NFL is a matchup league. The Niners' losses in their biggest games can be traced back in part to mismatches on the offensive line. Shanahan prefers to use OL for cap savings to the right of Trent Williams. So far, that gets them to the Super Bowl, but not winning it. They had no one who could face Chris Jones.

I’m aware that Jones is an All-Pro; my point isn’t to duplicate his level. My concern is that the matchup gap from All-Pro to sublevel starter is too great. Playing Seattle late last year, same thing, the interior offensive line was overwhelmed.

Shanahan explains the picks and the process

Shanahan appeared with Rich Eisen and broke down the 49ers' draft process. Scouts identify the top players, and position coaches compile highlight tapes. Shanahan reviews them in February, saying, “If I don’t like the highlight tape, I won’t watch any more.”

This is something I’ve long suspected: Shanahan watches highlights, not games, because he doesn’t have the time for more. The problem with that is highlights show strengths, but only game tape shows weaknesses. For example, highlights can lead you to pick Danny Gray; game tape would tell you don’t. Way too many body catches. Can’t have a deep threat with bad hands. That mistake cost the Niners a 3rd round pick, 105 overall.

For De’Zhaun Stribling, Shanahan points out that knowing how the league evaluates receivers, he believed there was at least a 50% chance Stribling would not last to 40. He didn’t want the pain of dealing back to 40 only for Stribling to go at 38. After the pick, Shanahan received texts from other teams around the league saying they were surprised that the Niners took Stribling, hoping he would last to their pick.

The Niners had Black ranked as the #2 running back in the draft. Shanahan explains that the RB class lacked depth, so that pushes the backs up. They had Black as a third-rounder with intel he would go by the fourth. So, to their scouting, picking him at 90 wasn’t a reach.

The consensus in the building

Lynch says he trusts the collective input of the scouts and coaches to make picks. Yet the building was on an island in ranking Black as the #2 back. The process leads to incomplete evaluations like Gray's. The priorities lead to scheme fits while ignoring mismatches on the field. These are all correctable problems, but based on history, we are unlikely to see any changes.

Rookie mini-camp is next up, May 8-9.

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