How the 49ers can beat the Chicago Bears without George Kittle

The battle for the 1 seed begins

Dec 22, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) carries the ball against the Indianapolis Colts in the fourth quarter of the game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The game of the year.

The 49ers and Bears face off as both teams have a path to the NFC’s 1 seed. Chicago has built its record on comebacks and creating turnovers. The Niners built theirs on offensive execution and making just enough plays for the win on defense. To get the victory, the Niners need to shut down a Bears comeback and protect the ball.

George Kittle is considered “highly unlikely” to play. If he can’t go, the running game takes a hit, Brock Purdy loses a go to receiver, and the red zone efficiency drops.

For Chicago, the Niners catch a break as receiver Rome Odunze is out. With Renardo Green missing this game, the Niners secondary is vulnerable. Caleb Williams not having a deep threat in Odunze helps.

49ers on offense

Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Purdy is back in 2023 form and has played his best football in the last two games. For a stretch within the last two, the offense scored on 16 of 19 possessions, a success rate over 84%.

The Niners are converting third downs on the year at over 50%, something that has only been done for a season by 22 teams in NFL history.

The offense is rolling, but can it maintain that level of efficiency without Kittle? Purdy will need to find a way; offensive consistency is the key to victory. The Niners need long scoring drives for touchdowns in the red zone in what should be a high-scoring game.

Can the running game get untracked without Kittle? The Bears defense is 29th in the league against the run, giving up five yards per carry. The Packers' Emmanuel Wilson had 14 carries for 82 yards last week. Christan McCaffrey behind a Niner offensive line playing their best ball of the season should have success. Luke Farrell also had one of the key blocks on McCaffrey’s longest run of the year.

The key will be the red zone, and that’s where Chicago did have success last week. Green Bay failed to score on ten plays inside the 10. McCaffrey without Kittle has not run effectively in the red zone. Kyle Shanahan will need to get creative and trust the pass for scores.

Jake Tonges has shown he can make clutch plays when given the opportunity. He doesn’t create the gravity or present the threat that Kittle does, but he’ll need to be part of the mix.

Purdy gets Ricky Pearsall back, and will need to lean more on Jauan Jennings on 3rd down. McCaffrey will probably lead the passing attack in targets. He needs 151 yards for an NFL record second 1,000/1,000 season. Chicago ranks 3rd in the league in passing yards against by running backs, but McCaffrey is a unique challenge.

The Bears are 29th against the run, 28th against the pass, so the Niners can drive on them all night. Chicago survives that by leading the league in interceptions and turnovers. This is the game where Purdy must play clean and throw the ball away as necessary. Chicago depends on picks for stops.

Chicago on offense

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Williams is great when he has to be, leading six comeback wins. He’s been money in the 4th quarter, but can struggle with consistency, only having a 57% completion percentage in his last five games. He’s also a lesser QB on the road, throwing five of his six picks.

The Bears can exploit the Niners' weakness covering tight ends, featuring 1st round pick Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet. Given that San Francisco needs all hands to stop the Bears' rushing attack, the Niners will be exposed in coverage.

Williams, D.J. Swift, and Kyle Monangai have combined for over 2,100 yards rushing. Swift is seven yards shy of 1,000. The Bears are 3rd in rushing yards and yards per carry. Williams has nearly 400 yards rushing, and the Niners struggle to contain running quarterbacks.

Making it difficult for Robert Saleh, Williams beats the blitz since he has the speed to elude blitzers. Saleh may therefore choose to utilize extra DBs on throwing downs and force Williams to execute throwing the ball. With Odunze out, D.J. Moore and Loveland should get most of the targets.

Prediction (8-7)

Both teams have the strength to attack their opponent’s biggest weaknesses. The Niners have the consistency to beat the Bears defense but must avoid turnovers. If they do that, the game turns on scoring volume and the red zone. I expect Eddy Pineiro to be busy, but I also think the Niners will find the end zone enough.

Both teams will ring up the scoreboard, but the key is if the Niners can play keepaway late. A long scoring drive can deny Williams the chance for another 4th quarter comeback. I take Purdy and the consistency of the Niner offense over Caleb’s inconsistent completions.

49ers 34 Bears 31