The one stat that could define the 49ers' season

This is surprising.

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Brock Purdy has not been great since returning to the San Francisco 49ers, but he has been better than Mac Jones in one area, and that is why the 49ers' ceiling is higher with Purdy. According to FTN data, Brock Purdy throws a much more catchable deep ball than Mac Jones. 

Brock Purdy is the key to the San Francisco 49ers making plays down the field

In the chart, you can see that Purdy not only throws a more accurate deep ball, but the 49ers are also creating more expected points from it, which typically will lead to actual points. 

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Jones has shown himself to be a competent quarterback, and he can run the system without making major mistakes. However, the offense does not have an explosive element with Jones. Some of that is because Christian McCaffrey has not created long runs, and some of this comes down to Ricky Pearsall missing time. However, a good portion is that Jones is not making big throws down the field. 

What is interesting to note is that while Purdy is getting more value out of his deep balls, his EPA per deep ball attempt still looks like an outlier. The only four quarterbacks near the same catchable pass rate as Purdy are the four top producers in EPA per attempt. Then, there is Purdy, who is below average in this area. 

Purdy is hitting more often than not, but when he is missing, he is missing badly. Purdy has one touchdown and four interceptions when throwing the ball 20 yards or more. That is hard to do with so many passes that are on target. 

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There are two ways to look at this. First, Purdy is getting unlucky. Over time, being that accurate on deep balls will pan out and lead to more big plays than bad. Pearsall is healthy, Purdy is adjusted after missing time; he is already accurate, it is going to come naturally. 

The other is that Purdy is too boom-bust, and the team should try to reel him in. He has poor stats when holding the ball and trying to create out of structure. He has shown he can be accurate on the deep ball, but now he is leaning on it when he is not throwing from a clean pocket. If San Francisco can get him to make the deep passes only when it is called for, the team may be in good shape. 

Either way, this is going to be the stat worth following for the 49ers. Can Purdy make big plays, or will they continue to lead to negative outcomes, even if the process is right?