49ers cannot reach their ceiling until this changes with Brock Purdy

This is a bad habit.

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The San Francisco 49ers won another game, but the offense has yet to hit their ceiling, as all of their touchdown drives started in the Cleveland Browns' end of the field, and Purdy threw for just 168 yards in the win.

Purdy looked a bit more comfortable in this game, but he has continued one trend that needs to slow down if San Francisco wants to compete for a Super Bowl

Brock Purdy needs to play with better timing for the San Francisco 49ers

The biggest difference between Brock Purdy and Mac Jones is that Purdy has a knack for extending the play, while Jones has a knack for checking the ball down and getting the ball out of his hands. On one hand, Purdy tends to create more plays off-script than Jones does. More than that, Purdy has a 5.6% sack rate this season, while Jones is at 17.9%. Purdy can extend when Jones cannot. 

However, right now it appears as though Purdy is extending the play too much, and it is not benefiting the 49ers. Purdy holds the ball for 2.5 seconds or more 60% of the time. This is the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. On the flip side, Jones is at 51.8%, where only ten quarterbacks are lower than him. 

The issue is that Purdy has three touchdowns and seven interceptions when he holds the ball for 2.5 seconds or more this season. He has a 7.3% turnover-worthy throw rate, per Pro Football Focus. Of the top nine quarterbacks who hold the ball longer than Purdy, only one has a TWP rate higher than 4% and that is JJ McCarthy. 

Even worse, his 1.9% big-time throw rate is the lowest of any of the top nine in this area, much lower than McCarthy, who is surprisingly at 8.1% in this area. The next lowest of the top nine is Jacoby Brissett at 3.7%. 

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No quarterback is worse at extending the play than Brock Purdy right now. 

What is interesting is that Purdy has been trending this way throughout his career. As a rookie, he had a 50% rate of holding the ball for 2.5 seconds or more. Purdy had eight touchdowns and two interceptions this season, showing that he was great when extending the play.

In 2023, he held the ball more than 2.5 seconds 53% of the time, a tick up. He threw 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions, so more turnovers, but the big plays offset it. In 2024, he held onto the ball more, with a 59% rate. This is a notable increase, and his touchdown-to-interception rate went to an ugly 13-11 rate. 

With three touchdowns and seven interceptions this year, he has 42 touchdowns to 29 interceptions when holding the ball for 2.5 seconds or more. When he throws the ball under 2.5 seconds, he has 31 touchdowns to just five interceptions. That is a phenomenal rate. 

When he holds the ball for less than 2.5 seconds, he has a better pass rating, completion rate, and touchdown-to-interception ratio when compared to Mac Jones. Purdy needs to trust the offense and play within structure in the way that Jones did earlier this season. It is good that Purdy can extend the play, and as shown in previous years, when it is not expected, it is more lethal.

However, this is the default and majority for Purdy now, and it is not working.