Realistic Expectations for Trey Lance's Rookie Season

When the 49ers drafted Trey Lance, it seemed they expected him to sit on the bench for a year or two.

Now, it seems they expect him to take over the starting job midway through the upcoming season at the latest.

"I think the 49ers could make the playoffs and win the division and still have a quarterback change in the middle of the season," the NFL Network's Mike Garafolo said recently. "I truly believe that. Now that's not a knock on Jimmy G. It's just that Trey Lance from what I gather has already shown up there and proven that he is mentally at this stage of the game a lot more than maybe people thought. And I feel bad for Jimmy, but there's nothing Jimmy can do to stave that off.

"If Trey Lance is lighting it up in the preseason and he's showing them day in and day out, maybe in practice and whatnot, they're going to make the change. And they're going to go to him when he's ready, no matter what Jimmy does."

I've seen Lance practice three times, and I've seen Jimmy Garoppolo practice many many times, and I expect Lance to win this competition and start Week 1. And if he does start Week 1, it's reasonable to expect him to produce numbers similar to what Robert Griffin III produced his rookie season under Kyle Shanahan.

That season, 2012, Griffin started 15 games, won 9, threw for 3,200 yards, ran for 815 yards, threw for 20 touchdowns and 5 picks, ran for 7 touchdowns and won the Rookie of the Year Award. His career seemed tremendously promising until he tore his ACL his first playoff game and never was the same after that.

Lance is much more gifted than Griffin ever was, and is on a better team, too. Which means, according to my calculations, it's reasonable to expect Lance to produce roughly 4,000 total yards, 30 total touchdowns, 10 to 12 wins and one the Rookie of the Year Award.

Let's see if my calculations are correct.