This rookie X-factor could decide the San Francisco 49ers' season

This rookie needs to have a big game.

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The San Francisco 49ers have not gotten enough out of the 2025 NFL draft class so far this season. However, there are two players who have massive roles in the Divisional Round game against the Seattle Seahawks. The one that you least expect to be an X-factor, Alfred Collins, has become one for this matchup. 

The San Francisco 49ers need a big game from Alfred Collins

Max Chadwick of Pro Football Focus went through the rookie X-factors for every team left in the playoffs. While the expectation is that he would choose Upton Stout fresh off of a big game, Chadwick went with Collins. 

The 49ers are tied with the Giants for the worst run-defense grade in the league this season (44.5) and have the fifth-worst pass-rush grade (62.6). The only other team that’s in the bottom-five for both is the Cardinals, who are picking third overall. Collins was drafted in the second round to help fix that problem, but he has the worst run-defense grade of any qualifying defensive tackle (30.0). Any improvement he can give San Francisco’s beat-up defensive line would be very welcome

Max Chadwick

It is fair that Collins has ascended to the best run defender on the roster rather quickly. Beyond that, the real issue that the 49ers defense had the last time they played Seattle is that Seattle has not been a great rushing attack, but they were able to sustain success against the 49ers front. 

Sam Darnold has not been great in recent weeks, and if the 49ers are able to stop the run, it puts him in a tough spot as a quarterback against a Robert Saleh defense that knows you well. 

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Beyond that, Seattle likes to get into heavier formations and get teams to take their slot cornerback off of the field. San Francisco may not be able to utilize Stout as much this week. So, it can make sense why Collins may have a bigger role than Stout in this game. 

For the Seahawks side, Chadwick chose Nick Emmanwori. Emmanwori has been able to play safety, dime linebacker and the slot for the Seahawks and has unlocked a lot of versatility in their back end. This is key for the 49ers, who run a lot of heavy looks, but Seattle will not adjust to them because of their trust in Emmanwori. 

This is a logical X-factor, but another could easily be Grey Zabel. The starting left guard has been a gem for the Seahawks so far this season. A lot of his work is going to come against Collins. Even if it is not, it is going to be in the run game. 

If Zabel looks like the best rookie on the field, the Seahawks may be winning, but if Collins looks like the best rookie, it is almost a lock that the 49ers defense will be able to hold the Seahawks in check.