Why Mike Evans Could Be the Most Consequential Signing of Free Agency

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Anyone who has followed the mythology of the Kyle Shanahan offense over the years knows both what is capable of, and provided by, a legitimate ‘X’ wide receiver. Coaches who have worked in that system deify both game-altering speed (see former Shanahan assistant Klint Kubiak pushing to bring Rashid Shaheed to the Seahawks last year, or Mike McDaniel building his Dolphins roster with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle) or to alter the course of a game as a large-bodied, physically dominant, alpha-type wide receiver.

Shanahan has crossed paths, and maximized his tenures, with both Julio Jones in Atlanta and Andre Johnson in Houston. The issue with these wide receivers is that they simply do not come around—or come available—all that often.

So begins the hype prologue for Mike Evans joining the 49ers, a move that, assuming health (always a dangerous proposition for a soon-to-be-33-year-old wide receiver) will have the largest single impact of any signing this year in free agency and be able to return the 49ers to a pedestal example of offensive efficiency.

The tentacles of this move, outside of Evans feeling schematically dried up in Tampa Bay and seeking new challenges, are vast.

First, this is a clear indication that Shanahan saw the Rams’ move for Davante Adams before last season and wanted to create a similar dynamic. While Shanahan has succeeded with big ‘X’-style wide receivers, he has not, of late, lined up a ton of receivers like Evans. It will likely signal something of a stylistic change from the most recent 49ers offense as we knew it. While this isn’t an attempt to mirror L.A.’s setup—Puka Nacua earned Adams a lot of single coverage reps, which Adams tends to dominate, while it’s uncertain how much help Evans will get from Ricky Pearsall—it is an alternate path to a similar end.

Second, Evans is the best wide receiver in the NFL against man coverage and, like Adams, will dominate if Shanahan is able to scheme the defense into man tendencies. The 49ers, with their amoebic personnel, have set the modern standard for how an offense can dictate the personnel of a defense. However, some who have coached in the Shanahan system believe this move will have its largest impact in the running game. Evans is certain to draw a lot of double teams—he was sixth last year with a 35% double-team rate—which means he’ll draw safety help away from the running game. Lately, teams have been committing that additional safety to Christian McCaffrey, which helps explain the grind-it-out nature of McCaffrey’s rushing output last season (McCaffrey had one of the highest percentages of eight-man boxes in the NFL last year, at nearly 30%).

From a broader perspective, this is precisely what we hoped would happen after Seattle won the Super Bowl. We are often mistaken when we try and pinpoint the juggernaut division, only to be let down by a barrage of injuries, or a team declining due to the salary cap, or successful teams losing all their coaches (see the AFC and NFC Norths in recent years, as well as the AFC West). But it’s impossible to argue that the NFC West has three of the NFL’s five best coaches and, quite possibly three if its 10 best general managers.

The fact that Evans is an obvious schematic counterpoint to an evolution Sean McVay made a year ago is proof the NFC West is still in an intellectual arms race, which is, ultimately, great for football. I don’t want to sound hyperbolic, but signing Evans is the type of move that propels the 49ers into a legitimate Super Bowl conversation sheerly because of the schematic flexibility he provides.

Less and less, these kinds of targeted signings are a fatty, sugared-up hype trap (like most of free agency). Evans would not have left the comforts of a place where he won a Super Bowl and spent more than a decade for anything other than the opportunity to be coached by one of the best receiver-centric minds in the NFL. We’ve seen great receivers falter toward the end of their careers on second or third teams (Julio Jones is a perfect example) but others end with a flourish when a vacancy is created in the absolute perfect place.

Evans is in that place. He makes buying into one more year of George Kittle more enticing. He makes buying into one more year of McCaffrey thrilling. He takes the remnants of one of the best almost-there rosters in recent NFL history and allows us to dream about it once more.

Again, free agency can inspire this kind of drunkenness months before actual games are played. But with Evans and the 49ers, opponents are crystal clear about the maddening potential.

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