Why 49ers shouldn't fear one of the leagues hottest running backs

It's not a great matchup on paper.

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At first glance, the Carolina Panthers' rushing attack should be a problem for the San Francisco 49ers. Rico Dowdle is fourth in the NFL in rushing, and he did not even play with the starters at the beginning of the season. Still, there is reason to assume the 49ers will have success in this matchup.

San Francisco 49ers should feel confident against Rico Dowdle

Dowdle averaged 130 rushing yards per game from Weeks 5-9. Any sustained run like that is going to have you high on the overall metrics at this point. However, he has not been nearly as good the last two weeks. In the last two games, he is averaging 49 yards per game. 

The issue does not appear to be that he started hot but has fallen off since. Rather, it appears to be tied to the offensive line. The Panthers moved Brady Christensen into right guard around the same time that Dowdle entered the lineup. The two ignited the rushing game. 

However, Christensen went down with an Achilles injury and has missed the last two weeks. He will not be back this season. Since he has left, the Panthers' offense has not been the same. 

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According to SumerSports, Christensen was on the field for 132 rushing attempts, while the Panthers have had 185 attempts without him. They have 699 yards in both scenarios. The yards per rush are 5.3 with Christensen and 3.8 without him. It is a rather massive difference. 

Some of the snaps without Christensen also came before Dowdle broke out, but it is interesting to see that Dowdle has slowed down his production in recent weeks as well. 

Dowdle has not been reliant on the big play. Only James Cook and Kyren Williams have a lower breakaway run rate when looking at the top ten rushers in the NFL. San Francisco is one of the best in the NFL at defending explosive runs, so the issue should not be here.

Dowdle had been excellent at consistently creating yards, though. San Francisco allows a high success rate, so it will be a great test on both ends. If Dowdle does not have a good game, it will be clear that the line was the reason for his success. If Dowdle has success, it will show that the team has a clear weakness against a specific type of runner. Can the 49ers shut him down?