Why the 49ers Still can Beat the Packers

Sure, the 49ers 49ers are missing half their team and are seven-point home underdogs.

Who's to say the 49ers can't beat the Green Bay Packers Thursday night?

Sure, the 49ers 49ers are missing half their team and are seven-point home underdogs.

And sure, on Wednesday they placed four additional players on the Reserve/COVID-19 List -- Kendrick Bourne, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams -- even though all their tests were false positives, according to NBC Bay Area. They still can't play against the Packers. Maybe the 49ers should pay for better tests?

And of course, the following players also are out: Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Dee Ford, Nick Bosa and Richard Sherman. And that's not good.

But there are reasons the 49ers can beat the Packers, too. In fact, the 49ers will beat the Packers. Mark it down. 

Here's why the Niners will win:

1. The 49ers still have Nick Mullens.

He's one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL, and he's better than the 49ers' starter this year -- Garoppolo. Mullens' quarterback rating in 2020 is 97.8, while Garoppolo's rating is 92.4. And if you include the three playoff games he played in 2020, his passer rating falls to 85.9. No bueno.

Garoppolo is a one-read quarterback who doesn't make quick decisions and throws with inconsistent footwork. This year, he seems unwilling to throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field.

As opposed to Mullens, who actually reads coverages and loves throwing downfield. He gives the 49ers their best chance to win this season, not Garoppolo.

2. The 49ers still have JaMycal Hasty, Kyle Juszczyk and Ross Dwelley on offense.

Honestly, it probably doesn't matter who plays quarterback for the 49ers this week, because the Packers can't stop the run. Last week, they played the Minnesota Vikings, who came into that game with just one win, and lost because the Packers gave up 173 rushing yards.

The 49ers can run on the Packers, too. They still have the best fullback in the league, Kyle Juszczyk. And rookie running back JaMycal Hasty is explosive and powerful and fresh. Between him and Jerick McKinnon, the 49ers should be able to control the game with their rush attack, win the time of possession and keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline.

Remember, the 49ers beat the Packers in the NFC Championship while passing just eight times. The Niners don't need to pass much Thursday night. But when they do pass, they can throw to tight end Ross Dwelley, who has 23 catches, 12 first downs and three touchdowns in his career, plus he has caught 69.7 of all his targets. He's a good receiver.

3. The 49ers still have Fred Warner, Jason Verrett and Arik Armstead on defense.

Warner is one of the best linebackers in the NFL, and he's coming off a down game, so he has something to prove.

Verrett is playing like a Pro Bowl cornerback and can shadow Packers wide receiver Davante Adams if necessary and take him out of the game. None of the other Packers receivers can hurt the 49ers consistently.

And although Arik Armstead has reverted to his pre-contract-season form -- he's on pace for just three sacks this season -- he dominated the Packers last season. In two games against Green Bay, Armstead had three sacks, five quarterback hits and a forced fumble.

The 49ers sure could use that Armstead Thursday night.

4. The 49ers still have Robert Saleh.

And he still is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL.

Last week, Saleh did a great job keeping Russell Wilson in the pocket and taking Tyler Lockett out of the game. But the 49ers didn't have enough talent to match up with D.K. Metcalf, who almost single-handedly beat them.

This week, Saleh will play two deep safeties with man-to-man coverage underneath and dare the Packers to run the ball -- they're missing their top-three running backs. And it's very difficult to throw against two-deep man-under coverage -- the quarterback's best option often is to scramble. And if Rodgers scrambles, the 49ers will crush him.

5. The 49ers still have Kyle Shanahan.

And he's still arguably the best run-game coordinator in the NFL. Even without Mostert, Samuel and Aiyuk, I expect Shanahan to find a way to gain 200 yards on the ground. That's what he does for a living. He runs the ball at will, especially when he faces the Packers.

The probably game will come down to the final drive -- it won't be an easy victory for the 49ers. But they'll win 24-21. 

Their season isn't over yet.