Why the 49ers will Beat the Bills

There's a reason the 49ers are the favorites against the Buffalo Bills.

That's right. Oddsmakers have given the 49ers, who are 5-6, a one-point advantage over the Buffalo Bills. who are 8-3. And not because the 49ers have home-field advantage. Technically, it's a home for the 49ers, but they're playing in Arizona. It's a neutral site.

Oddsmakers favor the 49ers over the Bills because the 49ers are better than the Bills. The 49ers are improving and getting healthier while the Bills and the rest of the league is getting banged up. Now, the 49ers are the team no one wants to face.

Here are the top-five reasons they will beat the Bills Monday night.

1. Bills quarterback Josh Allen isn't 100-percent healthy.

He injured his knee and ankle last week against the Los Angeles Chargers and appeared on the injury report all three days of practice this week. He still has the most powerful arm in the NFL, but he might not have his usual mobility, which would bode well for the 49ers, who have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks this season. This week, they may not have to worry about containing Allen -- his injuries could do the job for them.

2. The 49ers have defended Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs well before.

Diggs is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, but the 49ers have faced him twice before. And every cornerback they have other than Ahkello Witherspoon has covered Diggs well. Witherspoon gave up two touchdowns in two games to him, but Witherspoon probably won't even suit up for this game. And his replacement, Jason Verrett, matches up quite well with Diggs. And if Verrett and Richard Sherman shut him down, the Bills offense won't have much else to threaten the 49ers.

3. The Chargers gave the 49ers the blueprint to slow down the Bills offense.

The Chargers and 49ers run similar defensive schemes, because Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh's mentor. And last week, Bradley showed Saleh how to slow down the Bills seventh-ranked passing game when the Chargers limited Allen to just 157 passing yards and Diggs to just 39 receiving yards. Mission accomplished.

Unfortunately for the Chargers, they also gave up 172 rushing yards, a big reason they lost. The 49ers have a terrific run defense -- it ranks eighth in fewest yards per attempt allowed. Meaning the 49ers will execute the Chargers defensive game plan better than the Chargers did. The 49ers will shut down the Bills rushing attack and force Allen to lead long, tedious drives from the pocket, and that's not his game.

4. The Bills Can't stop the run.

The Bills are giving up 4.7 yards per carry -- sixth-most in the NFL. When they faced the Rams earlier this season, they gave up a whopping 167 rushing yards. The 49ers when healthy have a better rushing attack than the Rams, and all the 49ers running backs are healthy for this game. Even Tevin Coleman. The Bills will have to sell out against the 49ers run game to have any chance at stopping it. And they still might not slow it down.

5. The Bills can't cover both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.

The Bills will stack the box with eight and nine defenders. That's obvious. They're facing a run-first offense with a backup quarterback -- Nick Mullens. They won't show him respect. He'll have to earn respect. The Bills also will put their All-Pro cornerback Tre'Davious White on one of the 49ers starting wide receivers, Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk. And White could erase one of those players from the game. White is that good. But he can't cover both of them. And the one he doesn't cover will have a monster game catching deep play-action passes the Bills won't expect Mullens to throw.

And the 49ers will surprise the Bills defense by going no-huddle at times. And they'll put the Bills on their heels.

And the 49ers will win 21-17. And the rest of the league will take note.

The 49ers are back.