Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Las Vegas Raiders Week 4 who wins and why

A comparison of the position group matchups in Sunday's game at Allegiant Field between the Bears and Raiders with a predicted final score.
Gene Chamberlain|
Jaquan Brisker and teammates swarm to the ball in the last Bears-Raiders matchup in 2023.
Jaquan Brisker and teammates swarm to the ball in the last Bears-Raiders matchup in 2023. | Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Something became exceedingly apparent the more Bears coaches and players talked about their opponent Sunday, Pete Carroll's Las Vegas Raiders.

"Offensively they’ve got playmakers at every position group," coach Ben Johnson said about the Raiders. "Their quarterback is playing at a high level. I think they're the No. 1 team in explosive plays right now on offense. So, we've got our work cut out for us."

The Raiders are No. 1 with 15 explosive plays. The Bears are third with 12.

Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen looked at Geno Smith throwing to a speedy receiver corps and tight end Brock Bowers, and saw danger.

"They’ve got a lot of speed at the receiver position," he said. "They've got really good tight ends. Bowers I think is an exceptional tight end. He runs really good routes. He's got good speed. He's good at the contested catch point. So, that becomes a challenge obviously.

The quarterback has played well the last few years and he's playing well again."

They paid tribute to Maxx Crosby on the other side all week long, of course.

What became more apparent was how much like the Bears the Raiders are.

Both teams have been challenged to stop opponents, the Bears because of secondary injuries. Neither has been able to run effectively. The Raiders struggle despite having Ashton Jeanty. Stats say the Bears can run but scrambling yardage makes up huge chunk of their rushing total.

The biggest difference might be the presence of a dominant edge rusher in Crosby, who will face a tackle with no experience in Theo Benedet.

The line has shifted from the Bears by 1 1/2 to the Raiders by 1 1/2, much like last week's line shifted to the Cowboys later.

The injury situation with Grady Jarrett and Darnell Wright added to T.J. Edwards helps add to the Bears' underdog status.

It's the Bears and Raiders in Las Vegas Sunday at 3:25 p.m., the winner back to .500 and the loser at 1-3.

Here's who wins and why.

Bears passing vs. Raiders pass defense

The Bears passing game took flight last week against a team void of pass rush. That won't be the case this week. It goes beyond Crosby, although that's a good start. The Raiders have 12 sacks, third-most in the league and twice as many as the Bears defense has made. Caleb Williams will feel the heat. There will be fewer opportunities to take it deep and the screen game and short passing should be important in the Bears game plan. The Raiders' secondary has been unreliable with a 101.2 passer rating against, which ranks 23rd. Its as though the Raiders have one pass defense--Crosby. Raiders free safety Isaiah Pola-Mao ranks last in the league according to Pro Football Focus, they have had trouble at slot cornerback and their top cornerbacks are not established players, the best being former Packer Eric Stokes. Everything depends on the improving Chicago pass blocking, but with an inexperienced right tackle. No Edge

Bears running vs. Raiders run defense

After the prodigious 19-play drive with 11 straight runs last week, you'd think the Bears running attack might have arrived. But that drive was like inching the ball downfield. The holes haven't opened wide enough or long enough and backs haven't hit them fast enough. Darnell Wright is one of their best run blockers and he's gone now. The Raiders run defense has given up big chunk runs at times and is 18th in the league, 21st in yards allowed per rush. No Edge

Raiders passing vs. Bears pass defense

It's been somewhat surprising but the Raiders have their passing game in gear quickly in a new attack. Geno Smith's arm is part of the reason. Tight end Brock Bowers is tough to cover but the Bears do have Tremaine Edmunds and Jaquan Brisker for interior pass defense. They could even have Kyler Gordon back. Smith's 7.8 yards per attempt shows he's getting the ball downfield to Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker and Dont'e Thornton. But the consistency hasn't been there wit four TDs and four interceptions to go with an 84.3 passer rating. Secondary injuries and one to linebacker T.J. Edwards are problems but the lack of a consistent pass rush might be a bigger one against the speed the Raiders have at receiver. Smith is constantly on the run so far as he's been sacked 12 times, the third most and twice as many as Williams. No Edge

Raiders running vs. Bears run defense

Despite Ashton Jeanty's presence, the Raiders haven't run it. He's getting hit too often in the backfield to get it started. Giving up 5.5 yards per run will usually get an NFL team about three or four wins so the Bears can count themselves lucky to be 1-2. Making matters worse, their best run defender so far might be Grady Jarrett and he's out with a knee problem. The Bears need a big game from former Raider Andrew Billings. No Edge

Special teams

Both teams' kick return teams have been unproductive to date. Devin Duvernay has been over 10 yards per punt return, about what Tre Tucker has averaged for the Raiders. The Raiders could give the Bears an opening in returns with some of the league's worst coverage teams but the Bears haven't been much better. Daniel Carlson's dependable leg offsets this in the kicking game. No Edge

Coaching

Pete Carroll doesn't lack for energy even at his age but coaches in their 70s often find in the NFL they're getting out coached in the Xs and Os by younger guys. Ben Johnson is an offensive genius after last week's breakout by Williams in the passing game but he'll look even better if they can get their running game going. Still, both staffs are new and going through the usual wonky starts in that regard. Johnson, the gambler on fourth downs in Vegas is a fun angle but he's 1-for-4 on fourth down this year. The Bears are last at fourth down conversions in the league. No Edge

Intangibles

The days when the Raider had a tremendous home-field edge ended when they left California. There could be more Bears fans than Raiders fans Sunday, meaning it will be noisy for both teams. Still, the Bears haven't looked good on the road in one preseason and one regular season effort. No Edge

Prediction: Raiders 24, Bears 23

This appears as close as an NFL game can get on paper. Expect one big play to decide it. The Raiders' speed in passing game or Crosby could be deciding factors, with a late field goal winning it. Your highest paid players should be impactful in tight games.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.