Chances for Chase Claypool Deal to Succeed
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Chase Claypool became a lightning rod for the frustration of Bears fans throughout the winless second half to the 2022 season.
When the Bears acquired the former Pittsburgh wide receiver for a second-round pick, much was expected but little was produced. The blame went to insufficient preparation time for Claypool since he hadn't been around all offseason preseason or the first half of the regular season.
"There's an entire offseason and half of a season of installs and all the things you need to do collectively to play and execute offensive play," Bears GM Ryan Poles said when the season ended.
Poles also pointed out injuries were factors as both Claypool and Justin Fields were hurt at different times and it didn't lend itself to continuity in the passer-to-receiver connection.
"I told Chase, and we had a really good conversation, I'm not blinking at that one at all," Poles said of the trade. "I think he's gonna help us moving forward and I'm excited about it."
The reasoning is valid. Past trades of this type bear out the fact that receivers do struggle initially when traded at mid-season. It's not plug-and-play for very many when they get to new situations with new offensive systems and new quarterbacks.
But the last decade also suggests receivers dealt at mid-season rarely succeed with their new team.
Last season Claypool averaged 1.4 receptions for 20 yards a game with the Bears over seven games following his trade. He scored no touchdowns. With the Steelers, he'd been averaging 3.9 receptions for 52.4 yards and 0.31 TDs per game over the first 39 games of his career.
It's a steep drop but hardly one unlike other receivers have made once traded. What matters is what's ahead of him.
In the last decade there have been 14 other wide receivers traded on deadline, meaning in October or November.
Of all 15 traded, only two had higher rates of receptions with their new teams to finish out the year they were traded. Those two were Amari Cooper, who averaged 4.7 receptions per game with the Raiders and then 5.9 receptions in Dallas to finish 2018 and also a Bears receiver in 2017. The Bears traded for Dontrelle Inman n 2017 and he averaged 2.9 catches for the Bears in the final eight games that season after averaging 2.6 catches for 41 games in his career before the midseason trade.
Those two also were the only receivers among the 15 who averaged more yards per game to finish the season than before their trades.
In both cases, the situations dictated they would get more production, especially Inman.
The Bears had virtually no receivers in 2017 after injuries decimated their corps but they had almost no talent at the position anyway. And Inman came from the Chargers, who had too many receivers who were squeezing him out of targets. So it figured his production would climb elsewhere. With Cooper, it was a case of going from a struggling team to a better offense with Dak Prescott at quarterback and Ezekiel Elliott there to balance the attack.
It would be a pleasant and positive finish to this trade for Bears fans to know that in most cases the receivers who have been dealt at midseason and struggled did eventually come back the next year once they had a full offseason to work into the attack. They'd like to believe the scenario painted by Poles for Claypool is possible.
However, that isn't usually the case. In fact, it's been about 180 degrees the opposite.
The only player of the 12 traded before 2022 who went on to success the next year with the team they had been traded to was Cooper with Dallas.
Also, Zay Jones did, but not the next year. Jones went on to have better success with the Raiders eventually two years later, and now, after leaving as a free agent, he has blossomed with the Jaguars.
Generally, those traded were dealt for the same reason as most players at all position who get moved at that time of year. It's because their contracts are expiring and it's better to get some type of trade compensation for them than let them leave the following year in free agency.
Five of the 12 who were traded at midseason before 2022 went to their new team, then wound up being with an entirely different team the next year.
The teams they were dealt to at midseason usually either didn't like what they had seen or couldn't find "common ground" in negotiations. So they were allowed to walk without a deal.
There's also the curious case of Isaiah Ford, who was dealt by Miami to New England, didn't play a single down that season and got cut before winding up right back in Miami.
Claypool is already a real rarity as a receiver dealt at the trading deadline who is still under contract the next year with his new team.
So he actually has the chance to become an even greater outlier, and prove himself over the course of a full season after his midseason trade.
At least this is what the Bears and Poles are banking on.
Trading Receivers Midseason
(Last 10 Years)
Stat line: Receptions per game/Yards per game/Average TDs per game
| Player, Year | Teams | Career before Trade | After Trade that Year |
|---|---|---|---|
Percy Harvin 2014 | Sea-to-NYJ | 5.1/60.3/0.36 | 3.6/43.7/0.12 |
Chris Givens 2015 | STL-to-Balt | 3.8/29.9/0.08 | 1.6/28.3/0.08 |
Kelvin Benjamin 2017 | Car-to-Buff | 4.2/60.4/0.4 | 2.7/36.2.0.2 |
Dontrelle Inman 2017 | SD-to-BEARS | 2.6/35.7/0.17 | 2.9/41.7/0.12 |
Demariyus Thomas 2018 | Den-to-Hou | 5.3/72.4/0.48 | 3.3/39.3/0.28 |
Golden Tate 2018 | Det-to-Phil | 4.5/53.8/0.29 | 3.7/34.7/0.12 |
Amari Cooper 2018 | Oak-to-Dal | 4.7/65.3/0.38 | 5.9/80.6/0.67 |
Emmanuel Sanders 2019 | Den-to-SF | 4.2/55.1/0.31 | 3.4/50.2/0.33 |
Mohamed Sanu 2019 | ATL-to-NE | 3.4/39.1/0.23 | 3.2/25.9/0.12 |
Zay Jones 2019 | Buff-to-Oak | 2.5/28.8/0.25 | 2.0/14.7/0 |
Isaiah Ford 2020 | Mia-to-NE | 1.9/21.3/0.06 | 0 |
Jakeem Grant 2021 | Mia-to-BEARS | 1.3/14.3/0.07 | 0.8/12.6/0.18 |
Kadarius Toney 2022 | NYG-to-KC | 3.4/35/0 | 2.0/24.4/0.28 |
Robbie Anderson 2022 | Car-to-AZ | 3.6/48.3/0.29 | 0.7/7.6/0 |
Chase Claypool 2022 | Pitt-to-BEARS | 3.9/52.4/0.31 | 2.0/20/0 |
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
