How Caleb Williams Emerged from the Grinder
It's the time of year when the quarterback analyst is a superstar.
Their opinions are sought at every turn, and they tell everyone what is visible on film to them and only them.
Film doesn't lie, the saying goes.
This doesn't seem to be the case when it comes to quarterbacks, though. Only the quarterback analyst can decipher game film of passers.
It's why talk shows seek them out.
These oracles have not exactly been kind to the Bears' unverified lean toward Caleb Williams in the draft over keeping Justin Fields.
To be exact, they might have misgivings about Fields but they're not all getting into the Williams line
The Caleb Williams Camp
Chris Simms
No one has been more all in on Williams than the NBC Sports/Pro Football Talk analyst.
"You run to the podium if you're Chicago," Simms told Dan Patrick. "I feel as confident about this as I did about Mahomes, CJ Stroud, Lamar, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow whatever. This is to me a slam dunk."
Simms also is not someone one thinks the quarterback comes in and sits. If Williams is taken first overall, it would seem unlikely this would happen, anyway. No QB chosen first overall has done this since Baker Mayfield in 2018, and Cleveland was roundly criticized for this considering how poor that team was.
Rick Spielman
The former Vikings GM made his stance on this known very early on, calling Williams better as a pick coming in than any QB to come into the draft since Andrew Luck. He even sees Williams better than Peyton Manning was as a prospect coming into the draft.
There are plenty of analysts saying what he did in college does not translate to the NFL but Spielman thinks it's all a matter of adjusting and Williams has the ability to do this.
"Overall, though, it is hard to poke a lot of holes in Williams’ game," Spielman said. "He will have to adjust to the speed of the game in the NFL, and the windows will be tighter, but those adjustments should come quickly for him.
"After watching the 2023 tape, there is no question that if everything checks out through the pre-draft process, he will be a franchise-changing quarterback for whoever drafts him."
His overall assessment sees something few QBs in the draft class have shown and that's an ability to actually go through a progression the way NFL passers do.
"Williams shows his ability to get through his progressions and get the ball out on time when he must," Spielman wrote. "His arm strength, release quickness and ball placement jump out on the tape. NFL defensive coordinators are going to have to game plan for Williams’ unique athletic ability and speed to make plays with his legs."
Leaning to Caleb Williams
Chase Daniel
Daniel, the former Bears backup QB, isn't overly critical of Williams and even tells Rich Eisen, "I think he's a better prospect coming out of college than Patrick Mahomes was."Daniel isn't overly critical of Williams and even says, "I think he's a better prospect coming out of college than Patrick Mahomes was."
However, Daniel takes a more even stance on Williams and on The 33rd Team and other places offered a perspective on some of the things that went on in Indianapolis with teams.
It wasn't entirely positive so the pro-Justin Fields faction is likely to seize upon this. He also offered up for NFL Network the thought Drake Maye was more ready for the NFL than the other QBs, although many analysts seem to have soured on Maye somewhat in recent mock drafts and prospect rankings.
Mike Tannenbaum
The forrmer NFL GM offered a stance totally pro Williams from what he has seen, but told Mike Greenberg on "Get Up" that the decision facing the Bears more economical than anything else.
"It's an absolute no-brainer and I like Justin Fields, let the record show," Tannenbaum said. "This is not an anti-Justin Fields. This is called the salary cap."
The cap situation is Williams starts out the pay cycle again while Fields is due an extension before 2026 and his fifth-year option for 2025 at $25.66 million must be picked up in May.
"I'd rather have Caleb Williams, who has higher upside in my opinion, plus an additional $30 million a year to improve the team," Tannenbaum said.
He also pointed out the disparity between some producing QBs who get little money and some who aren't and make a huge amount, and indicates how much drain it puts on a team.
Kurt Warner
The Hall of Famer is convinced about Williams' talent as a college quarterback but isn't going to say it automatically means he's going to be the next Patrick Mahomes.
On The Schmo's podcast, he called Williams a "generational college talent."
Then he followed by hedging.
"I'm always very cautious of dropping those things on these kids," Warner said. "Can we relax and let Caleb Williams ty to figure out how to play and if he can be special let him figure out that narrative on his own?"
It's kind of a cop out from an analyst, actually. However, what Warner didn't back down on was what he thought about Justin Fields.
The Anti-Williams Guys
Dan Orlovsky
The former NFL QB for ESPN says Jayden Daniels is a better option for the Bears with the first pick than Williams is, although he wouldn't totally trash Williams' future. He based his conclusions off of game film and offered these in a talk with Eisen..
"After watching all that I would take Jayden No. 1," Orlovsky said. "Ball placement vs. man (defense) is best in the draft."
He saw a lot of plays with Williams holding the ball too long and then finding a receiver.
"We know that's not real life in the NFL," Orlovsky said, although Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers have been known to hold the ball, buying time with their feet, until a receiver comes open.
He simply likes Daniels better because he has the "...most transferable stuff to the NFL," as there is more quick reads and throws.
"I think that he plays faster both mentally and physically," Orlovsky said.
The Notre Dame game when Williams got picked off three times in the first half was convincing to Orlovsky.
"That Notre Dame game is a tough game to look at," he said. "Real NFL defenses. Al Golden (Irish D-coordinator) dialed it up for Notre Dame. Notre Dame creates some pressure."
However, Orlovsky did call Williams second best of the top three passers in the draft.
Merril Hoge
The former Steelers and Bears fullback and ESPN analyst had painted a poor picture of Williams while on NBC Sports Chicago during Super Bowl week. He took it to virtually the point of bordering on bust by saying Williams wasn't special.
Later, he softened this a bit or at least explained it better on AM-670 The Score in Chicago with Mark Grote. He sees Williams as leaning too heavily on his mobility by holding the ball and not being aware enough of down-and-distance situations while managing his unique abilities to throw off-script.
"I feel very comfortable in my evaluation of him," Hoge told Grote.
The comparisons to Patrick Mahomes are going to hurt Williams because he'll lean on this too much.
"This expectation that he is Patrick Mahomes is going to be a daunting thing," Williams said.
Hoge called Joe Burrow and C.J. Stroud the two best quarterbacks in the last "five or six years," and based this on how they play within the pocket.
"At the end of the day, that is where you must master this game, I mean, in the NFL, if you're going to be truly consistently successful," Hoge said.
Too many times on film he saw Williams' big plays come after four seconds to throw.
"In the NFL you don't have that luxury anymore," Hoge said.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
