Skip to main content
Bear Digest

Bears and Ben Johnson Face Rare Year 2 Challenge NFL History Says Few Survive

Ben Johnson led a fast Bears rise, but NFL history says repeating that Year 2 success against a brutal 2026 schedule will be far tougher than fans think ahead.
Gene Chamberlain|
Ben Johnson will be attempting to achieve the kind of Year 2 success that eludes most coaches.
Ben Johnson will be attempting to achieve the kind of Year 2 success that eludes most coaches. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

In this story:

Chicago Bears

Ben Johnson validated his reputation as one of the NFL's offensive geniuses in his first year as Bears coach.

You don't finish sixth in the league in offense in Chicago. It's almost beyond belief based on the franchise's past.

Doing something similar to what Johnson accomplished last season will be extremely difficult even for a coach on the cutting edge for offense, based on the last two decades of NFL history.

There have been a few impressive efforts but by and large it is rare for first-year head coaches to even make the playoffs their first year, let alone go into them in Year 2 and win a playoff game.

In the last 20 years, there were just 23 first-time head coaches who made the playoffs prior to Johnson in their rookie season and only eight went on to make it in Year 2 and win a playoff game the way Johnson will be attempting to do. Of the 23, 14 didn't even make the playoffs the next year.

In that time the only coach to win a Super Bowl in his second season after making the playoffs in his first year was Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin. He had a 12-4 record in 2007, then the Steelers went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl the next season.

Eagles coach Nick Sirianni, Rams coach Sean McVay, and Jim Harbaugh while with San Francisco, were the only other coaches who made it to the playoffs in Year 1, then made it to the Super Bowl and lost in Year 2. Tomlin, Harbaugh, Sirianni, McVay, DeMeco Ryans, Rex Ryan, Chuck Pagano, and Matt LaFleur are the only eight coaches in two decades to do what Johnson is going to be trying to do -- win playoff games in his first two seasons.

Schedule contributes to difficulty

The situation looks even more difficult for the Bears considering what they face in terms of the schedule.

With the league's toughest schedule according to opponents' winning percentage, Johnson will be trying to do something really not accomplished often. No team with the toughest schedule based on opposing winning percentage has made the Super Bowl since Dan Quinn got the Falcons there in the 2016 season, when they blew 25-point lead and lost to Tom Brady and the Patriots.

In fact, in those 10 years only that Falcons team and Sirianni's 2023 Eagles made it to the playoffs while facing the league's toughest schedule based on winning percentage.

In fairness, winning percentage from last year is not always an exact indicator of schedule difficulty but it is usually close. For instance, the Giants last year started the season with what was said to be the toughest schedule. When the year ended and the records of opponents for that season had been used instead of the previous year, the Giants actually had played the eighth-toughest schedule with an opposing winning percentage of .524. After, you're not playing the previous year's schedule. You're playing new or altered rosters in different circumstances.

The Browns had what was said to be the toughest 2024 schedule but in the end it was only seventh toughest. The previous year, the Eagles made the playoffs as a wild card tam facing what was said to be the toughest schedule but at season's end it was only 10th toughest.

So there is hope the Bears' schedule won't be nearly as difficult as No. 1. In fact, it has usually happened that it isn't as tough, but there has been only once instance where the schedule was supposed to be toughest and it came out far easier. That was in 2019 when the Raiders were said to have the most difficult schedule and it proved to be 21st most difficult.

Bottom line

Johnson's expertise on offense doesn't hurt, and having a younger roster with many of the chief contributors viewed as rising players is also a help.

The potential improvement factor from Caleb Williams' second year in the same offense and third year in the league is also big, but everyone thought the same thing about Mitchell Trubisky and that didn't quite work out in 2019 for the Bears. Then again, the Bears' success in 2018 never was attributed mostly to their offense the way it was last year.

Williams has the weapons and the offense to do it.

However, plenty of other coaches thought the same type of thing as they approached a difficult task against difficult opponents.

Second-year coaches

After making playoffs as first-year NFL coach

  • 2007: Sean Payton, missed playoffs
  • 2008: Mike Tomlin, won Super Bowl
  • 2009: John Harbaugh, first-round playoff win;  Tony Sparano, missed playoffs; Mike Smith, missed playoffs
  • 2010: Eric Mangini, missed playoffs; Jim Caldwell, playoff loss; Rex Ryan, first-round playoff win
  • 2012: Jim Harbaugh, lost Super Bowl
  • 2013: Chuck Pagano, won first-round playoff game
  • 2014: Chip Kelly, missed playoffs; Mike McCoy, missed playoffs
  • 2017: Adam Gase, missed playoffs; Ben McAdoo, missed playoffs
  • 2018: Sean McVay, lost Super Bowl; Sean McDermott, missed playoffs
  • 2019: Matt Nagy, missed playoffs; Frank Reich, missed playoffs
  • 2020:  Matt LaFleur, won first-round playoff  game
  • 2021: Kevin Stefanski, missed playoffs
  • 2022: Nick Sirianni, lost Super Bowl
  • 2023:  Mike McDaniel, lost first-round playoff game; Kevin O'Connell, missed playoffs; Brian Daboll, missed playoffs
  • 2024: DeMeco Ryans, won first-round playoff game
  • 2026: Ben Johnson, Liam Coen, TBA

X: BearsOnSI

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Loading recommendations... Please wait while we load personalized content recommendations

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

Home/News