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Bears' 2026 Schedule Sets Up Tough Early Challenge for Caleb Williams

The Bears' 2026 schedule gives Caleb Williams a brutal early test, with elite pass defenses likely forcing Ben Johnson to lean on the run game first this fall.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams finds the end zone during a 2024 game against Carolina, team the Bears face in the opener.
Caleb Williams finds the end zone during a 2024 game against Carolina, team the Bears face in the opener. | David Banks-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The release of the NFL schedule reveals exactly what Bears quarterback Caleb Williams faces week to week as he tries to continue the progress the offense showed last season.

Since opponents were already known, much of what opposing defenses would present for the Bears already was evident. However, lumping together games and sections of the schedule provides the real clarity.

The crucial start to this season becomes much more clear. The rest of what the Bears and Williams face can change as the season progresses, but the start could determine where everything breaks for the Bears on offense.

At least based on last year's statistics, it doesn't say Williams is going to come out shredding secondaries and piling up air yards on his way to a 4,000-yard season. It will take a much greater level of consistency in his first NFL season using the same offense for successive years. Basing it on last year's statistics might sound unreliable, but if strength of schedule uses this approach then statistics can support it, as well.

Running early the best Bears option

The start to the season looks extremely difficult for Williams through the air, not only because of DJ Moore's departure and the adjustment to some new targets but because of the pass defenses they'll go against.

Conversely, many teams they face coming out of the gate struggled to stop the run last year. Coach Ben Johnson should love this because he is, after all, a run-first play caller. If it is there to be exploited, the run legitimizes the pass. Play-action freezes defenders.

  • In Week 1, Carolina was 15th against the pass
  • Week 2 Minnesota was second
  • Week 3 Philadelphia eighth
  • Week 4 the Jets 17th, which is somewhat deceiving considering they gave up more touchdown passes than any team
  • Week 5 Green Bay 11th
  • Week 6 Atlanta 13th
  • Week 7 New England ninth
  • Week 8 Seattle 10th

The new guys

The Bears finally begin to face a few of the weaker pass defenses on their schedule in the season's second half. They do face the top-ranked pass defense later, though. That's the Buffalo Bills.

What's interesting about Buffalo is it has a new defensive coordinator and new coach this season so much could change. The Bears do not face a lot of the teams with new defensive coordinators but there are a few.

The Bills game on Dec. 19 is in the middle of a three-game stretch against defenses with new people calling the shots.

Miami and Green Bay also have new coordinators and are in that stretch.

The flip side

Johnson's opportunity to exploit the run is there early when the passing game is going against tough secondaries and pass rushes.

  • Carolina's defense was only 20th against the run
  • Minnesota in Week 2 was 21st
  • Vic Fangio's Philadelphia Eagles were 22nd
  • The Jet were 29th stopping the run
  • Green Bay was 18th
  • Atlanta was 24th

It's Week 6 where this ability to pound the ball at defenses will end, at least based on last year's statistics.

The Bears run face-first into some of the league's best run defenses in three straight weeks. New England was sixth, Seattle third, and Tampa Bay fifth.

By this point in the season, Williams and his receivers should be in sync enough to face most challenges. They'll need to be at that point.

Early blocking efficiency

The Bears made offensive line changes since last year, with Garrett Bradbury at center and probably Braxton Jones at left tackle. They'll need those players up and ready early in the blocking scheme to run effectively against weaker run defenses they face then, because the pass blocking might not hold up as well against defenses so strong against the pass.

Based on what happened with last year's offense, it could be a challenge for this to happen. The Bears did not come out running it well in the first four games, averaging just over 100 yards a game. Then they benched Jones, who was having trouble returning to full strength after his 2024 ankle surgery. The ground game took off and so did the offense.

It's going to be critical this season to have what they plan to do on the line working efficiently on the ground in order to give Williams a chance against these stronger pass defenses at the outset.

How Williams has fared against these teams


All told, Williams is going against teams he has enjoyed average success against. He has a passer rating of 89.35 against all of this year's opponents. His career passer rating overall is 89.0.

Williams' career touchdown percentage is 4.2% and against opponents on this schedule he has faced he has a 4.3% TD rate. His career interception rate against these teams is 1.2% and that's exactly what his career interception rate is.
It's the same thing with his yards per attempt. His career average is 6.6, a figure that needs badly to increase.

Against opponents on this schedule he has been at 6.55.
Williams' greatest challenge is getting the completion percentage higher than its current 60.3% level. For his career, against this year's opponents, he's at 60.8%.
If he is to improve against this schedule, it's going to take a true step up in his skill level in so many ways.

What can’t be denied is the start to this Bears season and for Williams' third season will truly be a tone setter, for better or worse.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.