Bear Digest

Bears defense requires more than a weather assist to slow Jared Goff

Analysis: Even after last year's success with the "stumble bum" play, it's true Jared Goff hasn't excelled in cold weather but can the Bears' defense use this edge?
Gene Chamberlain|
Lions quarterback Jared Goff took apart the Bears' secondary last year on a 29-degree day, dispelling the notion he can't play in the cold. Or did he?
Lions quarterback Jared Goff took apart the Bears' secondary last year on a 29-degree day, dispelling the notion he can't play in the cold. Or did he? | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The Jared Goff winter storm watch is on ... again.

As a strong supporter of his former quarterback, Bears coach Ben Johnson would never agree about it. However, cold weather has never been Goff's favorite playing experience.

Last year Goff undeniably stood this concept on its ear when he came to Soldier Field with game time temperature of 29 degrees and dissected the Bears' defense.

Then again, this was while Eric Washington was defensive coordinator and the Bears were in the throes of a 10-game losing streak. The Lions won 34-17 and Goff ran the "stumble bum" play to perfection with a classic fake and then throw for a TD to Sam LaPorta.

Goff went 23 of 32 for 336 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and LaPorta.

So much for the Goff cold weather theory?

Well, perhaps not because it's going to be tested again Sunday as the Soldier Field forecast is 29 or 30 degrees at game time.

Going into the game last year, Goff had played in 10 games with game time temperature of 32 or colder and he was 188 of 303 for 2,203 with six touchdowns, seven interceptions and a passer rating of 78.58.

This was based on reported game time air temperature by NFL statistics.

The Lions have not played in real cold weather since then. Their coldest weather this year came in Philadelphia when it was a balmy 45.

For his career now, Goff has a 96.8 passer rating, but it's 86.4 in temperatures 32 or colder. He averages 230.8 yards at freezing or lower, which is 31.1 yards less than his career average. He is 211 for 335 for 2,539 yards with nine TDs and seven interceptions. His interception rate is 2.1% and TD rate 2.7%.

The TD rate is 2.2% lower than his career TD percentage and interception rate 0.2% higher.

In the cold, his teams are 5-5-1 and for his career they're 89-60-1.

The success last year at Soldier Field is tempered by his previous trip there in 2023, when he got picked off twice, threw for 161 yards on 20 of 35 and was sacked four times in a 28-13 loss. His passer rating was 54.6, but it was a relatively tropical 36 degrees on Dec. 10 in 2023.

Only 11 games in a career as long and successful as Goff's is hardly a good sample size.

Still, it's an extra number to toss into the stew when trying to determine whether Detroit can come in minus some key players, with no real incentive, and score a road win during what has been a dream-type Chicago season.

An even better asset for the Bears in this one than the cold would be a better pass rush.  

It was a not-so veiled commentary on the defense’s struggles following Sunday’s loss to San Francisco when Johnson was talking about Brock Purdy's success against his defense.

“We certainly didn't affect him enough,” Johnson said.

Cold weather or not, they’ll find the same happens with Goff if he’s able to stand and pick away at their secondary.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.