Caleb Williams May Be Closer to NFL MVP Than Bears Critics Want to Admit

What a difference a year can make. Following an underwhelming rookie season, Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams was widely seen as an impending bust. The next tombstone to be raised in Chicago's quarterback graveyard. But after Caleb Williams' breakout season in 2025, his first season with Ben Johnson, he's now on the cusp of superstardom, and one analyst is 'all-in' on Williams as a dark horse MVP candidate.

Caleb Williams' 2025 season was the floor, not the ceiling of his potential

NFL analyst Kay Adams, speaking on her Up & Adams Show podcast, put together a list of five dark horse candidates to win the 2026 AP NFL MVP award, and she chose Caleb Williams as No. 2, ahead of Justin Herbert, Jayden Daniels, and Kyler Murray. "The talent's there, he was working miracles [in 2025], and everything we're hearing out of Chicago is about how he's been getting more and more comfortable with Ben Johnson this offseason," Adams said. "As great as he was last year, I do think the ceiling is much higher."

That sense of comfort she mentions is critical. As Caleb Williams' command of Ben Johnson's offense grows, his ceiling in the NFL gets pushed even higher. Being more comfortable means he can move on from merely repeating the playcalls in the huddle to actually visualizing the offense on the field. This is the next step that Williams must take to becoming the kind of field general that Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning were.

Adams went on to talk about Williams' critics, saying, "I've seen people point out completion percentage, some of the areas for improvement, like it's a bad thing... He won 11 games and pushed for a Super Bowl despite all of that. Can you imagine what it will look like if he cleans that stuff up?"

I couldn't agree more. It's a strange assumption made by some people that what we saw from Williams in 2025 was his ceiling when, in fact, it's far more likely that that was his floor. Remember, Williams has only played in two NFL seasons, and one was wasted by arguably the most incompetent coaching staff in Chicago Bears history. I saw enough improvement in his game from Year 1 to Year 2 to feel comfortable that Year 3 will see an even bigger leap in his development.

Can Caleb Williams reach his full potential in Year 3?

At this point, the question isn't whether Williams will get better in Year 3, but how much better will he get? Can he really go from a middle-of-the-pack quarterback to league MVP?

The short answer is, yes he can. Williams was the Heisman Trophy winner in 2022 and consensus first-overall pick of the 2024 NFL draft for a reason, and one former NFL GM even said he'd take Williams over Peyton Manning.

Now for the long answer. Williams has all the talent in the world, and we just saw him take his two greatest weaknesses from his rookie season (taking too many sacks and being unacceptably inaccurate on deep balls) and turn them into strengths in just one offseason of work. There are other areas of his game now that must improve, and I don't doubt that they will after he takes the summer to focus on them.

If Williams can keep that same level of sack and interception avoidance and improve his completion percentage to just 65%, he's going to blow past the 4,000-yard mark and probably get close to 40 touchdowns, too. Those are hands-down MVP numbers, and you can bet that the voters will be encouraged to reward Chicago's first 4,000-yard passer with some well-earned hardware.

The Bottom Line

While he's far from a lock to win the 2026 MVP award, I don't think Williams truly qualifies as a dark horse candidate. I would almost consider him a favorite to be a finalist. He's simply too talented not to be, and being supported by the likes of head coach Ben Johnson and the sensational tight end Colston Loveland only bolsters his case.

If Williams does pull it off, he will become Chicago's first MVP since Walter Payton won the award in 1977, on top of making franchise history as the first Bear to be a Madden cover athlete. Williams has the talent, and he's got a good supporting cast. He just needs to go out onto the field in 2026 and get the job done.

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