Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and L.A. Rams divisional playoffs: Who wins and why

Comparing positional groups for Caleb Williams and Chicago to the L.A. Rams while examining other key factors, with a final prediction on the outcome.
Gene Chamberlain|
Kyren Williams celebrates with tight end Colby Parkinson after a TD run against the Bears last season.
Kyren Williams celebrates with tight end Colby Parkinson after a TD run against the Bears last season. | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The time for wild rallies by the Bears could be finished considering the opposition Sunday at Soldier Field.

The Rams play offense and defense.

Then again, no one should ever doubt Caleb Williams after what the Bears have accomplished since Week 3 of the regular season.

A 12-4 record since then, including wins over the Eagles, Steelers,  Vikings, and two over the Packers have proven they could beat winning teams. All those opponents either finished above .500, won their division, or made the playoffs

The Rams have been elite since season started, so Bears coach Ben Johnson had to be realistic this week.

"We talk about playing a complete game on offense," Johnson said. "This is the week that needs to happen for us to be able to beat this team.”

It will need to be complete until the final gun because Rams QB Matthew Stafford has done the kind of thing for 17 seasons that Caleb Williams has done this year. No lead is safe against him.

There are reasons to think the Bears can do it despite the formidable nature of their opponent, and others to suggest the wild 2025 journey will end.

It's the Bears and Rams Sunday at 5:30 p.m. from the lakefront as they seek a spot in the NFC Championship Game. Here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Rams run defense

If you're looking at the last few games only, the Bears would have a difficult time running it anywhere. The Rams gave up 79 and 83 yards rushing behind Poona Ford, Nathan Landman and Braden Fiske, but they got trampled for 219 by the Falcons, 171 and 135 by Seattle, 164 by Carolina and 179 by Baltimore. They show sporadic dominance but they gave up 4.3 yards a carry, which was 19th overall. The Bears haven't been able to get their running game on track the last three games with 110, 65 and 93 yards but they were third in rushing overall. A change at left tackle away from injured Ozzy Trapilo can't hurt. Theo Benedet's strength was blocking for the run. No Edge

Bears passing vs. Rams pass defense

Williams seems able to elevate when necessary as a passer, although his efforts early in games leaves much to be desired. He did it to the 11th-ranked Packers pass defense and the Rams ranked 19th stopping the pass, while giving up 26 TD throws. Williams should have a receiver corps at its healthiest since midseason but the issue is whether Benedet can block edge Jared Verse well and if Darnell Wright can block Byron Young, who had 13 sacks. Wright has blocked better rushers, though. Carolina's so-so passing game got the Rams for 250 yards last game. DJ Moore, in particular, should be able to take advantage of his matchup. Edge Bears

Rams rushing vs. Bears run defense

Kyren Williams powered for 1,252 rushing yards and Blake Corum for 746 yards. The Rams were a top 10 rushing team, finishing seventh, even with Matthew Stafford piling up big passing yards. The Bears ranked 27th stopping the run an this looks like a mismatch, but like with the L.A. run defense, they have sporadically produced several games stuffing the opponents. They allowed 99 and 122 yards rushing the last two games and only 87 to the Eagles earlier. The Bears need a 2023 version of Andrew Billings in this one. Edge Rams

Rams passing vs. Bears pass defense

This is less of a mismatch than it might look, depending on whether the Bears can get a little bit of a pass rush in the middle of the line. The Bears had 35 sacks, but Matthew Stafford has been sacked only 23 times this season and has two dangerous wide receiver targets in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. The Bears wouldn't be giving up a huge speed edge to those two but both are tough to get down once they make the catch, anyway. The cornerbacks will be challenged. Rams tight ends won't have to deal with T.J. Edwards but are not the speediest group, including Colby Parkinson. They are effective at moving the chains, though. Edge Rams

Special teams

This would be the not-so special teams for the Rams. From kicker to returns to coverage, they have struggled throughout the year, fired their special teams coordinator just before the playoffs and nearly lost last week's playoff game because they gave up a blocked punt. Now, substitute kicker Harrison Mevis has kicked in arctic conditions before the NFL but hasn't kicked this season in anything colder than 45 degrees or at Soldier Field. This is a huge lean to Chicago. Edge Bears

Coaching

In years gone by, the Bears couldn't match all of the dazzling motion, formations and personnel usage thrown at them by Sean McVay. Now they have this from Ben Johnson so it levels the playing field. Dennis Allen had a terrible first half and brilliant second half last week calling defenses against the Packers. They need something more balanced this week.  No Edge

Intangibles

There is no single intangible favoring the Rams in this. The cold weather situation, the wild crowd and momentum the Bears have are all working against L.A. The weather might seem a sort of extraneous, superficial factor but when you've not even played in anything colder than 45 since last year, and only a few times in the last four years, it matters if you're in terribly cold, windy conditions. Stafford and Adams played numerous games in the cold but Stafford has a losing record then, and it's been five years since he did it regularly. Like Tom Brady said, you get soft really fast in warm weather. Edge Bears

Final score: Bears 24, Rams 20

The DraftKings line: Rams by 4 1/2 (over/under 48 1/2).

Look for tipped and deflected passes in the cold for interceptions of Stafford in these conditions. Stafford threw almost as many interceptions over the years (15) at Soldier Field as he did touchdown passes (16). If the turnovers occur, the running game can take over for the Bears.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.