Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens Week 8: Who wins and why

A look at the positional groups matchups involved in Sunday's Bears game against Roquan Smith and the Ravens with a prediction on the game's outcome.
Gene Chamberlain|
Roquan Smith is a familiar face to Bears fans, although only two Bears who will play defense Sunday and no one starting on offense were his Chicago teammates.
Roquan Smith is a familiar face to Bears fans, although only two Bears who will play defense Sunday and no one starting on offense were his Chicago teammates. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The Bears went to Landover, Md. two weeks ago and upset a team listed as a 4 1/2-point to 5 1/2-point favorite.

They did it against a Washington Commanders team with the league's best running attack and a mobile quarterback who was just back the week before from injury.

Now they're going back to Maryland and could face Lamar Jackson with a potentially devastating running attack, as the Ravens QB returns from a hamstring injury. The familiar circumstances end here, however, as that Bears team was coming off of a bye and had its defense almost fully intact.

On Sunday, they'll be without cornerbacks Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon and on offense without Cole Kmet as they try to upset a desperate 1-5 Baltimore Ravens team.

The betting line has changed drastically down to 3 1/2 from 6 1/2 since word got out Jackson practiced Friday only with the scout team.

It's the Ravens coming off the bye, almost entirely healthy  and trying to find a way back to the playoff run in the AFC North.

Meanwhile, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is looking to regain the passing accuracy he had shown in a few games earlier this season, namely the 31-14 win over Dallas when he had four of his nine TD passes.

"Each week's its own story, and to me it's always been  completion-driven for him," Bears coach Ben Johnson said. "And if we get that completion percentage and we're distributing the football to our playmakers—because we got a number of them—then I think the passer rating and the numbers, that they’ll all take care of itself.

"But we just want to be more efficient, and hey, if primary is open, let's give him a good ball, and if he's not open, we need to be a little bit quicker and cleaner to our No. 2 or No. 3."

The Bears could need those points considering the absence of key defensive players.

It's the Bears at the Ravens Sunday at noon, here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Ravens run defense

Getting Roquan Smith back from injuries and with revenge against, apparently, GM Ryan Poles on his mind will be the biggest problem D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai and the running attack face coming off of their two best rushing performances of the season. The Ravens give up 4.5 yards per attempt, ranking them 21st in the league, and they are 26th in total rushing yards allowed. It's not the same stout front they had for years, but they do have the linebackers to help make it difficult for Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson to get out on the move in the blocking scheme ahead of the Bears backs. Five straight teams ran for 108 yards or more on the Ravens, as they were leaking against the run even when Smith was healthy. Then two weeks ago they allowed only 75 yards to the Rams on the ground and looked more like the stout group from years past. No Edge

Bears passing vs. Ravens pass defense

Baltimore's pass defense has been even worse than its run defense, ranking 28th in yards allowed and only two teams--one of which is the Bears--have given up more touchdown passes (14). They have fewer sacks (8) than the Bears do (12) and are led by Tavius Robinson and Nnamdi Maubuike with two sacks each. Their eight sacks are tied for last in the NFL. Ravens safeties Malaki Starks (129.6 passer rating against) and Kyle Hamilton (137.8) have been burned for far too many big plays and offer inviting targets when their defense overloads the front to stop the run, something that should interest Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and DJ Moore. The Bears should be able to challenge this secondary, considering how solid their own pass blocking has been. It's up to Williams, then, to be more accurate. Edge to Bears

Ravens running vs. Bears run defense

This is the biggest threat the Bears face considering Jackson probably doesn't have the greatest wide receiver corps to challenge the injured Bears secondary. If Snoop Huntley starts, the receiver/QB issues become even greater as he hasn't had much playing time. It's possible Jackson's spectacular open-field running ability will be curtailed a bit by his hamstring if he plays, but even then they also have former Titans back Derrick Henry to trample defenses. The Bears went from worst against the run two weeks ago to drastically improved when T.J. Edwards returned inside but they also had Gordon and Stevenson. Both are good against the run besides being able to blanket receivers. The return of 300-pound fullback Patrick Ricard only adds to the Ravens' ability to dominate physically up the middle behind two-time Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum. Edge to Ravens

Ravens passing vs. Bears pass defense

Tremaine Edmunds has been rolling in pass coverage over the middle and the Bears should be one of the few teams who can match up against Baltimore in that part of the field, but the ability of Jackson or Huntley to find running backs as well as tight ends makes their passing game dangerous. When Jackson can also run like he does, that's actually an outgrowth of the passing game as well. Huntley can also run, but obviously not like Jackson. Josh Blackwell probably will be the Bears' nickel and has successful experience doing it but with Nahshon Wright, Nick McCoy and Blackwell on the field in pass defense it's going to be difficult to keep blanketing Ravens receivers, even if they don't have the most threatening group. Edge to Ravens

Special teams

This is Devin Duvernay's big chance for revenge against the team that gave up on him when he was averaging 12.8 yards per punt return for his career. Baltimore has someone even more effective in Rasheen Ali, who averages 15.9 yards a return The Bears' kick return coverage has struggled but Ali so far hasn't been nearly as effective on kick returns as on punts. Kicker Cairo Santos is off the injury report for the Bears but you wonder how healthy he is and whether he's rushing back from the thigh issue simply to keep his job after Jake Moody's 8-for-8 start. Ravens kicker Tyler Loop is 9-for-10 replacing Justin Tucker but his one miss from outside 50 shows they've taken a step down here as Tucker ruled from long distanc. No edge

Coaching

Johnson doesn't have a good past against the Ravens. His Lions offense went to Baltimore with a 5-1 record  in their NFC championship game season of 2023, and got hammered into the dirt 38-6 by John Harbaugh's team. Later that season, Dennis Allen's Saints defense faced the Ravens and gave up 33 points in a home-field loss. The experience edge in coaching definitely goes to Harbaugh and staff as he's been doing it almost two decades. Edge to Ravens

Intangibles

Desperation and better health are a dangerous combination for the Bears to be facing while they own a four-game winning streak and are on the road. Harbaugh's Ravens teams have won more than 70% of the time at home over 18 seasons. Edge to Ravens

Final score: Ravens 24, Bears 21

A fully intact Bears defense would have a chance at extending the winning streak even in Baltimore, because the Ravens are 1-5 not simply because they were without Lamar Jackson for two games. However, injuries will catch up with the Bears defense here, particularly when it comes to open-field tackling. Remember, the Ravens didn't have Jackson when they came to Chicago in 2021 and still beat the Bears and Justin Fields/Andy Dalton.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.