Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers wild-card game: Who wins and why

How the position groups match up and other pertinent factors, with a prediction on the winner in Saturday night's playoff game between NFC North rivals.
Gene Chamberlain|
Josh Blackwell celebrates the recovery of an onside kick that led to the tying points in the Bears' 22-16 overtime win over Green Bay.
Josh Blackwell celebrates the recovery of an onside kick that led to the tying points in the Bears' 22-16 overtime win over Green Bay. | Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

A former Packers quarterback claimed to own the Bears.

The Packers have dominated most games at Soldier Field in recent memory, except for the overtime win on Caleb Williams' 46-yard pass to DJ Moore three weeks ago.

Yet, that was a regular-season game. In the playoffs, intangibles can mean so much more than in the regular season and the Bears have to hope this holds true in Saturday's wild-card game in Chicago.

In a struggle of wills, something like the home field can definitely tip the scales.

“This was the vision from the beginning, was to have some home playoff games at Soldier Field," Bears coach Ben Johnson said. "Was really excited about that opportunity to see that come to light here this year.

"Big credit to our guys, we talked about it a little bit (this week). The fact that you win the division that you're having home playoff games, that's huge. It's why we do what we do and now we've earned this opportunity, and we’ve got to make the most of it.”

How big?

The last nine teams to own home field in wild-card battles between divisional rivals came out the winner.

Johnson thought back to his Lions teams and the 2023 win over the Rams at Ford Field.

“That was a big one for a number of reasons," he said. "The home crowd was electric that night.

"That was of course (Rams QB Matt) Stafford coming back. That added a little bit more intrigue to it as well. That one came down to the wire, those guys played well and that was huge for that organization and that city to get that win.”

This huge game for the Bears organizaton could also come down to the wire, just like the last two Bears-Packers games. In fact, the last four came down to the end, three of the last four on the final play and the other one the next-to-last play. Why should this be different?

It's the Packers and Bears in a playoff game for only the third time in history and it's on the lakefront Saturday at 7 p.m.

Here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Packers run defense

Green Bay's weakness is its two defensive tackles and the Bears' strength is their guard-to-guard wall in the offensive line. This should open the way for Kyle Monangai and D'Andre Swift. The Bears had 138 and 150 yards rushing in two games against Green Bay. The keys will be if the Bears can avoid negative or short second-down rushes and if Caleb Williams can contribute rushing yards on scrambles. The Packers were a good rush defense, finishing 12th in yards allowed per rush, but like with their pass rush, everything has faded once Micah Parsons was removed and other injuries set in. Edge Bears

Bears passing vs. Packers pass defense

Williams' lack of playoff experience could be a factor, no doubt. He should benefit from having back Rome Odunze, who missed both Packer games, and also Luther Burden. People tend to forget they didn't have either of those two key receivers in the last game and won anyway. Green Bay manufactured a pass rush in the last game, but since they lost Parsons their options and productivity here have begun to go the same way as their run defense. The Packers didn't have safety Evan Williams in the last game, and teamed up with Xavier McKinney they can lock down the top on any passing attack. The Bears were third at passing and Green Bay 11th stopping the pass, but the Packers' could credit much of those stats to Parsons' presence earlier in the year. No Edge

Packers running vs. Bears run defense

This is the worst part of the Bears defense. People often claim they can't rush the passer but the real problem is Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter and Grady Jarrett haven't stopped the run. As a result, QBs can remain unpredictable and attack them through the air. You earn the right to rush the passer by stopping the run.

The Bears allowed 5.0 yards a carry. That's disgraceful. Green Bay ran on the Bears last time using sub Emanuel Wilson, while Josh Jacobs was hurt. Now, the top Packers rusher is healthier than he's been in the season's second half and can make a difference provided Nahshon Wright doesn't knock the ball out of his hands again. Edge Packers

Packers passing vs. Bears pass defense

The Bears secondary that was planned for this year would have been formidable indeed, possibly the strongest part of the team. It never materialized due to training camp and offseason injuries and they've had to make due with whoever they could put on the field. Getting back Kyler Gordon really doesn't fix it as, just like Jaylon Johnson, he hasn't had a season. It's not baseball, where a guy comes in and is back up to effectiveness. Fitting into the scheme is not an easy situation. The Packers have all of their receivers healthy for Jordan Love but the one issue they could have here is right tackle Zach Tom's injury. If he can't play, it could go a long way toward undermining their passing game. Edge Packers

Special teams

The weather, with 20 mph wind and gusts to 30 or 35, cold and even flurries could make the kicking game all but impossible. Cairo Santos' knowledge of the winds in Soldier Field can be a plus. The punting games would be bigger, as well. Daniel Wehlan led the NFL in yards per punt but such bad conditions tend to greatly hamper distance punting and turn it into a directional battle. The return battle here probably favors the Bears slightly due to Devin Duvernay's punt return numbers, but the Packers could challenge that if they throw in Keisean Nixon for returns. No Edge

Coaching

Sure, Matt LaFleur has more playoff coaching experience. Does losing playoff experience matter? He's 3-5 in postseason. Johnson is in his first playoff game as a head coach, and was 2-2 as a coordinator with the Detroit. Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has coached one playoff game, a 22-10 loss to the Eagles. No Edge

Intangibles

The home field actually counts for something against the Packers in this one for the Bears, especially after they won on their own field just three weeks ago. Home field does matter in the playoffs as home teams in wild-card round games since the 1990 realignment are 94-56 (62.7%) and since the new setup with seven playoff teams per conference, home wild-card teams are 21-9 (70%). Even though the last one was with subs on the field, you have to wonder if they can flip the switch suddenly and win. Also, the Packers have lost four straight. Can you just flip a switch against a division winner? Edge Bears

Final score: Bears 24, Packers 23

The DraftKings.com line: Packers by 1 1/2. Over/under 44 1/2.

The Bears' defensive problems make this a difficult victory for a No. 2 seed but their season has been anything but conventional. They just seem to find a way when they're counted out. With the betting line doing a total flip since earlier when the Packers were 1 1/2-point underdogs, it's apparent the Bears are being counted out again. So, expect another unexpected win late in the game, possibly Williams running in for the winning points in the closing seconds sounds about right.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.