Chicago Bears' Nightmare Scenario for 2026 Can Be Summed Up in One Word

The Chicago Bears are all-too-familiar with falling victim to regression over the last 20 years. It's going to take a village to avoid that in 2026.

Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson and quarterback Caleb Williams. | David Banks-Imagn Images

The Chicago Bears took a big step forward in 2025, going from worst to first in the NFC North before winning a playoff game.

Amid that impressive season, which was also the first of new head coach Ben Johnson's tenure, we saw quarterback Caleb Williams make progress and begin to look like the franchise quarterback Chicago thought it was getting in 2024.

But, as Johnson has so eloquently put it, none of what the Bears did in 2025 really matters anymore. What matters is 2026 and Chicago taking another step forward and avoiding what is the dirtiest word that can be spoken in Chicago: regression.

"We go back to square one," Johnson said. "We are back at the bottom again. And that's really all 32 teams. If you feel otherwise, you're probably missing the big picture. We got to start from scratch. We got to start from the fundamentals."

Bucking the team regression trend

Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

When it comes to team regression, Chicago has been the poster child for that over the years. Going back to the 2010 season, the Bears have missed the postseason after each year in which the team has made a trip to the playoffs

You'd have to go back two full decades for the last time Chicago made the playoffs two years in a row, and that campaign ended with a Super Bowl loss.

Progress as a team in 2026 amounts to a trip to the NFC title game since Chicago fell just three points short of that last season. That's the kind of high expectation the Bears have set for themselves.

Caleb Williams must cement himself

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. | Dan Powers / USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In order to avoid team regression, the Bears must avoid their most important players individually regressing.

The most important is Williams, who is on his way to —but has not fully completed — cementing himself as the long-term answer under center.

That's something even general manager Ryan Poles admitted when talking about a possible extension for Williams.

"I hope eventually to have a quarterback situation, too, where we've got to pay a young quarterback," Poles said. "We're getting closer and closer to clarity on that side of things."

"I want to be clear: Anyone that's watched the league long enough knows that for quarterback play, it's consistency," he added. "Can you stack years on top of each other? We still have steps to go. I don't want to make it like he's already [there]. He knows he's got work to do."

It takes a village

Chicago Bears wide receiver Luther Burden. | Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

Williams tops the list of individual regressions the Bears can't see happen if they want to take that next step, but he is not the only one on it by a long shot.

Johnson has to continue being the elite play-caller he has been for Williams to be in tbe best possible position to succeed. The league has now seen a lot of Johnson's approach, but can the Chicago head coach stay ahead of teams in Year 4 as a play-caller?

Williams and Johnson need Luther Burden, Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai to keep making their lives easier, too.

Was Burden's and Monangai's second-half surges a fluke? Can Odunze stay healthy and, together with Burden, make us forget all about DJ Moore? Is Loveland going to keep ascending to the realm of an elite tight end?

Then, there's the blocking. Can an offensive line that finished No. 1 and No. 5 in pass-block and run-block win rate, respectively, avoid making life more difficult?

Doing so became more difficult with Ozzy Trapilo not in the mix. The good news is, Braxton Jones, Trapilo's likely replacement, really has nowhere to go but up from last season.

There are a lot of moving pieces on this Bears offense, and there is no shortage of questions that need to be answered. All of it adds up to helping or hurting Williams in 2026.

What about defensive regression?

Chicago Bears defensive end Montez Sweat. | Mark Hoffman/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Speaking of having nowhere to go but up, as bad as the Bears' defense was last season, there are some individual regressions that simply can't happen in 2026.

With so many question marks in the pass-rush, the Bears can ill-afford to see Montez Sweat and Austin Booker take a step back.

Along with the offense avoiding regression, it's going to take a much better effort from the defense if Chicago is going to get over the hump and finally take the step forward this franchise hasn't been able to over the past 20 years.