Bear Digest

Dallas Signing Could Be Market Indicator for Bears in the Backfield

One of the top free agent backs will not be in the marketplace after a signing Saturday and the deal's cash could signify where the Bears will want to go at running back.
Gene Chamberlain|
D'Andre Swift drives ahead for yardage against Detroit in the regular-season finale.
D'Andre Swift drives ahead for yardage against Detroit in the regular-season finale. | David Banks-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

If the Bears were contemplating a venture into the free agent running back market, the cash might be more than they will want to spend.

This is the message sent by the first major pre-free agency signing at this position.

Bears starter D'Andre Swift is on the final year of his deal and could look really good at this point to his team considering what the cost of perceived better backs would be.

Dallas running back Javonte Williams on Saturday signed a three-year deal worth $24 million to stay with his team, according to NFL Network.

Projections for Williams' value all came up short of what he actually got. The Athletic projected three years and $18.5 million while Pro Football Focus came in $330,000 a year short and Spotrac.com came up $700,000 a year short.

Williams is not the best running back who was slated for free agency only one of the better ones.

The unrestricted free agent running back linked to the Bears in unsubstantiated rumors was Jacksonvill’s Travis Etienne. PFF has that as a contract of $11.5 million per year and The Athletic at three years and $12.5 million a year. Considering both were closer to Williams' projection than Spotrac.com, the $6.8 million a year that Spotrac projected for Etienne looks way off and not a factor.

The price isn't right

If the Bears pursued Etienne, they could expect to be paying something much, much higher than the $8.8 million cap hit they're currently slated to absorb for current starter Swift. Cutting him to sign Etienne wouldn't make much sense.

Considering Swift's value last year as a back and receiver, the step up in pay they'd need for Etienne hardly looks worth the investment. Swift averaged 0.6 yards more per rush and 0.7 yards more per reception last season than Etienne did. Swift also had 30 runs of 10 yards or longer to only 25 by Etienne.

With the Bears still $4.1 million over the salary cap per Overthecap.com, any change at running back that is going to cost them $3 million to $4 million more than their current cap hit for a starter needs to be a real superstar back. Not only that, but it would come at the expense of signing or trading for needed defensive line help.

When the season ended, coach Ben Johnson wasn’t complaining about his running backs.

“Our run game picked up as the year went on, which I think was desperately needed, particularly when we had these home games late in the year,” Johnson said. “It’s a huge part of what we do and what we're about.”

More could be understood on the running back situation Tuesday when both GM Ryan Poles and Johnson talk at the NFL Scouting Combine. It’s unlikely they’d reveal much but sometimes votes of confidence go a long way, like when Poles said at season’s end he would really like to have free agent safety Kevin Byard back again.

What goes a lot further toward indicating their direction is their wallet, or the NFL version of this in the form of the salary cap. Ditching good talent to pay more for someone comparable doesn't look like a wise investment.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.