Bear Digest

Measuring the value of top seed with Chicago Bears in hot pursuit

The Bears and 49ers both still have a shot at the top seed in the NFC and here's what the pole position has been worth in the playoffs during the 14-team playoff era.
Gene Chamberlain|
49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings holds onto the ball after making a catch for a first down in front of Bears linebacker T.J. Edwards.
49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings holds onto the ball after making a catch for a first down in front of Bears linebacker T.J. Edwards. | Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

On Friday, reporters asked Ben Johnson whether he thought his former boss, Dan Campbell, might sit Lions starters in the regular-season finale at Soldier Field on Jan. 4 now that Detroit has been eliminated.

It's a good question but not for Johnson at this time because of his much-publicized singular focus, and the 49ers Sunday night are now his only concern.

"Yeah. I’m not even thinking about anything beyond this game right now," Johnson said. "I’d be doing our guys a disservice.

"We have a really tough opponent at hand here this week. Going out to Santa Clara, across the country. And they’re hot right now. That’s all I really care about, is finding a way to go 1-0 this week."

Fortunately, not everyone must look only at the future through a next-game  prism. There is a question that needs answering about the near future.

The Bears are trying to become top seeds in the NFC. They would do it by winning their last two, if Seattle lost to either Carolina or San Francisco.

The real question is whether it's even that big of a deal to get it.

What's the top seed worth?

The top seed carries with it a wild-card round bye and home field advantage in two conference playoff games. The home field is always worthwhile. The bye should be.

This depends largely on your definition of worthwhile, though.

In terms of making the Super Bowl, there have been eight teams in both conferences as top seeds since the NFL expanded to seven playoff teams per conference and gave the No. 1 seed a first-round bye.

Half of those top seeds made it to the Super Bowl and half didn't. It has been 50-50 for the "big game" for those top seeds.

Also, three of the four top seeds who failed to make the Super Bowl also failed to win a single playoff game after they had a bye. Two of them were from the NFC North—the Lions last year, with Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator; and the Packers in 2021. They lost in the snow to the 49ers.

In that season when the Packers failed to win their first playoff game at home after a bye,  the Tennessee Titans met the same fate in the AFC as top seeds.

In all, top seeds in these four seasons have a 10-7 record in the postseason after getting a bye and home field throughout the conference playoffs.

The answer is that it matters and being home makes it easier to win, without a doubt.

But it obviously doesn't guarantee anything other than a spot in postseason before a friendly crowd, with a history suggesting there's a 50% chance to get to the Super Bowl.

A 50-50 shot is worth getting, and there's little doubt both the Bears and 49ers will make that apparent Sunday because both can still get it.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.