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What Analytics Say About Caleb Williams' Claim to Iceman Title

Bears coach Ben Johnson loves the EPA analytic, and it's possible to measure Caleb Williams' abilities as a late-game closer in this way.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams has a coach who loves analytics, and they say one thing about the QB's claim to being The Iceman.
Caleb Williams has a coach who loves analytics, and they say one thing about the QB's claim to being The Iceman. | David Banks-Imagn Images

The great Iceman debate will rage on until settled by courts or by Caleb Williams and George Gervin.

It seems a comparison of apples and oranges more than anything, since they're not of the same sport. It's just a nickname, except in their legal dispute.

Within their own sports, the Iceman should be someone adept at comebacks and closing out games, and Gervin couldn't hold a candle to Michael Jordan, Reggie Miller and Coby Bryant at this. So how could he claim the title? Meanwhile, Williams has produced as a comeback quarterback but only for one winning season.

However, at least in Williams' case there is an entire career ahead and it is good to know he is at least the Iceman in his own sport, or perhaps an Iceman.

Former Packers defensive coordinator and new Dolphins coach Jeff Hafley referred to Williams' ability in the clutch last year as "incredible."

Numbers say he was, but just not THAT incredible. Analytics are the friend of Bears coach Ben Johnson, and can tell us how good Williams is at being the Iceman.

What it says is Williams is shaping up as an Iceman, but isn't yet there.

The analytics

When a quarterback is an Iceman, he should be better late in games, on late downs and when blitzed. Williams wasn't the best at all of these last year, but was pretty darned good.

  • When blitzed, Williams, Williams had 14 TD passes, second only to Matthew Stafford. And he was third in passer EPA against the blitz (33.74) behind only Stafford (43.92) and Jared Goff (38.81).
  • When trailing, Williams had the fourth-best passing EPA at 65.12 while he was only at 43.96 and 12th in the NFL among starters overall. Still, when trailing in games Matthew Stafford (84.62), Bo Nix (68.34), and Dak Prescott (65.7) had better passing EPAs than Williams. Maybe Stafford should have the Iceman nickname. The Bears could vouch for that after he beat them in the playoffs in snow and in overtime.
  • When trailing, Williams threw 18 touchdown passes and only Bryce Young threw more with 19.
  • Jared Goff had more passing TDs on late downs with 16, but Williams was second with 11.
  • Williams wasn't close to the league lead in passing EPA on late downs (-2.41), as he ranked just 15th. Worse, while Williams was great against the blitz, when he was facing actual pressure the only two quarterbacks in the league with WORSE passing EPAs (-70.34) were Cameron Ward (-99.36) and Geno Smith (-110.11).

Bottom line

Analytics aside, Williams didn't rate superior even at fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives last year to Denver's Bo Nix. Counting the playoffs, Williams authored seven fourth-quarter comebacks and seven game-winning drives, while Nix had only six fourth-quarter comebacks but did have eight game-winning drives.

Until Williams clearly establishes himself as better at fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives than Nix, he can't really be the true Iceman. Neither he nor Nix are close to being better at this than Stafford. This much is certain.

Last week in the owners meetings, Johnson pointed out many areas where Williams and the passing game can improve. Then he added: “When we need to be at our best in the fourth quarter, that has to stay the same."

Actually, it needs to be even better if Williams wants to be the true Iceman. Williams is a stone-cold defensive killer when it's needed. He’s very cold to defenses then.

Yet, he’s not above Stafford. Maybe he’s more of a Snowman and is forming into an Iceman.

As for the debate with Gervin, it's up to the courts to decide this one but you'd think if someone wanted to be known as the Iceman they should at least have a championship to their name.

Gervin never even played for an NBA or ABA title. MJ was the true Iceman in that sport.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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