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Five Questions to Ask About the Bears Making a Move for Dexter Lawrence

A trade the level of one for the Giants' defensive tackle requires plenty of study, and there are five questions to ask before the Bears could make such a move.
Gene Chamberlain|
Dexter Lawrence could be highly sought if the Giants really are willing to trade him, but would the Bears be part of the hunt?
Dexter Lawrence could be highly sought if the Giants really are willing to trade him, but would the Bears be part of the hunt? | Michael Karas-NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Any way you slice it, the chances of Dexter Lawrence becoming a Bears defensive tackle look very long at best.

Lawrence can be a dominant force inside, although he wasn't last year.

At 340 pounds, he is a monstrosity who should shut down the run but as a pass rusher he has the quickness to finish a rush while possessing the power to cave in the pocket. It would not be surprising if more than half the league inquired what the cost would be for a trade, once it became known Lawrence was looking to be traded.

This website has previously written about the possible cost for Lawrence to join the Bears and how the speculation of a trade started with Lawrence. The discussion continues and could right up to the draft.

The Bears' defensive interior was a weak spot against the run last year, though probably not as poor at rushing the passer. The way to best describe the interior rush was inconsistent. Gervon Dexter can look unstoppable at times and other parts of games he can't be found.

There are questions about this entire Lawrence situation that need answering if the Bears were to actually become serious contenders to bring Lawrence to Chicago.

1. If Lawrence is so dominant, why can't the Giants stop the run?

Lawrence has played seven NFL seasons and as a monstrosity inside, he should be expected to elevate the Giants at least somewhat. Since Lawrence brought his 340-pound body to bear in their run defense, the Giants finished in the top half of the league at stopping the run one time. That was his second year, in 2020, when they were 10th against the run.

This is no big deal if they're close or mid-range. However, they have only been higher than 20th against the run one time, in that 2020 season. In fact, they haven't been better than 20th against the run since that 2020 season. In the last five years they were 25th, 27th, 29th, 27th and 31st. The Bears were awful stopping the run last year and even they were still better than the Giants.

You can't put the entire run defense's production on one man's shoulders. However, unless the Giants put 98-pound weaklings in the middle of the line alongside Lawrence, his supposed dominance should at least make them somewhat better than 25th, 27th, 29th, 27th and 31st against the run.

2. If Lawrence is the most dominant interior rusher, why isn't his pass rush win rate higher?

As this unstoppable, large, inside pass rusher, Lawrence must be a top-10 defensive tackle in the ESPN pass rush win rate metric, right? Well, he has been in the top 10 among defensive tackles. He did it twice in seven years. He wasn't top 15 last year or top 20 the previous year.

Sometimes the position Lawrence plays is one that simply removes double teams and makes it possible so others on the defensive line can apply the pressure. According to advanced metrics from Stathead and Pro Football Reference, the Giants have been in the top 10 as a defense with rate of pass rush pressure twice in Lawrence's seven years. They acquired standout Brian Burns from the Panthers in 2024.  

With Burns, Lawrence and also Kayvon Thibodeaux, who also has been reported to be on the trading block, they still finished 18th and 17th the last two years in rate of pressure. They were 18th before they had all three of those players in 2023. They were actually 30th in 2021. While everyone complains about the Bears' pass rush, they have been better than the Giants three of the past seven years according to Stathead/Pro Football Reference. So how much difference can Lawrence make?

3. Where will the Bears get the cash to pay Lawrence?

Lawrence has a cap hit this year of $26.9 million. The Bears would have to pay $18.5 million cash for his salary against this year's cap and next year's. They have $243,078 left unspent on this year's cap. That's thousand, not million.

They could always find a way to bring back about $18 million by restructuring some contracts. Restructuring sounds like a fun, care-free exercise. It isn't. It means you're going turn someone's cash into guaranteed bonus money and it then makes their contract less dispensable in the future. So if Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Montez Sweat or some other player gets restructured and has a poor year, or some injury situation makes it so the team wants to cut ties, they'll find it more difficult to do it. It could be worse than now.

The Bears essentially can't afford either Lawrence or Maxx Crosby and couldn't afford Trey Hendrickson when he was available because they signed Dayo Odeyingbo and Grady Jarrett to deals they can't dump until after 2026.

Then there is the Giants' end of it. There is not a great dead-cap hit for Lawrence's contract if the Giants dealt him, but he has two years left and not one. So, there would be one.

More important than any of this is where will the money come from to pay Lawrence in the future when he is in his 30s and probably less productive? The Bears need to pay Darnell Wright and Caleb Williams a colossal chunk of money within the next two years. And they're going to take on someone with cash demands like Lawrence? Good luck with that.

They could always trade Williams and then they wouldn't have to pay their QB. Then they could afford a big contract for Lawrence.

4. Would the Bears be able to outbid teams for Lawrence?

Not very many. They pick 25th. If the price to acquire him is a late first-round or early second-round pick, the Bears do have the 25th pick and that can put them in the running.

There could be a little competition, though.

NFL.com, SI.com, Yahoo Sports, Bleacher Report and CBS Sports all looked at teams' need for defensive tackles and the following teams also would have an interest in adding Lawrence besides the Bears: Baltimore, Jacksonville, Houston, L.A. Chargers, Cincinnati, Las Vegas, San Francisco, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Minnesota and Tennessee. Heck, throw in Detroit and Green Bay for that matter, as they could always use a defensive tackle as good as Lawrence.

Of those, the only teams who can't offer better first-round picks to the Giants for Lawrence than the Bears are the 49ers and Texans. The Raiders are using their first-round pick for a quarterback, so eliminate them, too. That's it.

Every other team on the list has better trade compensation to offer and every single team in the NFL has a better 2026 salary cap situation than the Bears. Most have better 2027 salary cap situations than the Bears, too.

5. So why am I wasting my time thinking about it?

Good question.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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