How ESPN is sneakily predicting a Wildcard loss for Chicago Bears

The network’s predicted draft position for the Bears’ draft suggests an early playoff exit. But it’s been wrong before.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs (87) catches a touchdown pass while being covered by Chicago Bears safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (35) during the third quarter of their game Saturday, December 20, 2025 at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Chicago Bears beat the Green Bay Packers 22-16 in overtime. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With all the wins they stacked up in 2025, you already knew the Chicago Bears weren’t going to be picking particularly high in the 2026 NFL Draft. Which, if we’re being honest, isn’t a sad thing after three straight years of top-ten picks.

This year, with 11 wins and an NFC North Division title under their belt, the Bears are will almost assuredly be picking in the 20s (at best) when their slot is confirmed at the end of this postseason. (Assuming they don’t do any wheeling and dealing before or on draft night.)

As of right now, ESPN is predicting the Bears will end up with the No. 21 overall pick, with their average predicted slot being 23.6.

On its face, you might not think much of that. But if you’re really keeping score at home, you’ll realize that suggests ESPN doesn’t expect the Bears to do much in the playoffs, per their models.

Remember: the 14 teams making the playoffs don’t get their first-round draft position locked in until their postseason concludes. The Bears will be among the 12 teams playing football on Wildcard Weekend, and the six losers of those games will make up picks 19-24 in the draft. (Case in point: the Bears lost their wildcard game in 2020 and were originally slotted to pick 20th in the 2021 NFL Draft before trading up to No. 11 for Justin Fields.)

That means ESPN is predicting, without saying so directly, that it expects the Bears to be among those first six casualties.

To be fair, that’s not some impossibility, especially with the Bears likely having to play the despised Green Bay Packers in Round 1. Though Chicago beat Green Bag at home a few weeks back, it did so against backup Malik Willis more so than starter Jordan Love, who was knocked out of the game early with a concussion. Plus, it’s Caleb Williams’ first playoff game at quarterback and Ben Johnson’s first as a head coach. There will probably be a hiccup or two.

That said, ESPN’s prognosticators also didn’t give the Bears much of a chance to make the playoffs against their tough end-of-year schedule, and here they are—the probable No. 2 seed in the NFC. You have to play the games, and the Bears have beaten the odds too many times to be ignored.

The Bears are still an underdog in a lot of peoples’ minds as they embark on an unlikely Super Bowl run starting next week. It’s up to them to prove the doubters wrong a few more times.

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