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Ranking Ryan Poles' Chicago Bears Picks for Potential Bust Rate

The Bears have several players who might be deemed risky by some sense of the word, and some who were obvious gambles. Here's who to worry about and why.
Gene Chamberlain|
Wide receiver Zavion Thomas scores against Vanderbilt. Despite his great speed, the Bears' third-round pick never averaged more than 12.6 yards a catch.
Wide receiver Zavion Thomas scores against Vanderbilt. Despite his great speed, the Bears' third-round pick never averaged more than 12.6 yards a catch. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

One word hits harder for teams than all others when it comes to the draft and that's "bust."

It's a word with various degrees and meanings but essentially the player failed to live up to their draft status in a big way. The Bears have had plenty of those over the years, although fewer since Ryan Poles became GM, especially if he was drafting in Rounds 1 and 2 and 4 through 7. Round 3, uh, not so much.

The Bears made their bold moves and other moves in the draft where they had players fall into their laps.

The bold moves revolved around looking aggressively for scheme fit. If you did that, and the player fails to pan out, you look even more inept at drafting than if you'd merely selected best available athlete.

"Again, we had clarity on what the role was going to be in terms of their opportunity when they get here," GM Ryan Poles said. "So we were a little bit more aggressive with those names."

First-round picks receive the most scrutiny but when teams have obvious needs and go with other players instead, busts can be even more painful. The Bears needed pass rushers on Days 1 and 2 of the draft and didn't take them so they could address scheme fits in other positions, and if any of those picks bust, they'll look even worst than they would otherwise look.

Here's a ranking for potential bust rate among Bears 2026 draft picks. You won't find sixth-round pick Jordan van den Berg on this list because little is expected from sixth- and seventh-round picks.

One study turned up 4% of all defensive tackles drafted in Round 7 during the first two decades of this century became starters. So if you get anything from a defensive tackle so late it's a plus. It's only 2.1% for running backs, which speaks for what a rarity Kyle Monangai was.

6. LB Keyshaun Elliott, Round 5

Working on Elliott's side is how high he was evaluated in predraft assessments, despite the fact only 14.56% of linebackers in the study who were taken in Round 5 became starters. He was actually graded a late Round 3 or early Round 4 pick by Pro Football Focus. So, even if they get only special teams play and backup help from Elliott it could be deemed a success. But with so much predraft hype, the possibility that a 166th overall pick becomes a starter looks better than if he had been a player they reached for in Round 3. The Bears even saw him as a potential defensive captain/play caller at some point.

5. C Logan Jones, 2nd round

Centers normally don't get drafted in Round 1 and the Bears had the first one taken, at No. 57. A report by ESPN says they wanted to trade up to draft Tennessee cornerback Colton Hood. If they had, would Jones have been possible.

Jones' only real flaw is short arms, which really isn't a problem at center unless he gets matched up one-on-one with a long-armed blitzing linebacker. Stopping a linebacker blitzing can be a mere matter of occupying his attention for a few seconds.

The only real reason to suspect this could turn out to be a bust is Pro Football Focus' center rankings. They had centers Jake Slaughter, Sam Hecht and Connor Lew all higher ranked on their draft board than Jones. Mel Kiper Jr., didn't have Jones as the top center, either. In fact, the Bears' third pick, tight end Sam Roush, as graded higher by PFF than Jones.

4. CB Malik Muhammad, 4th round

Considering 15 cornerbacks were selected ahead of him, there are lower expectations and so being labeled a bust is less likely.

The chances of finding a starter in the secondary in Round 4 have been low compared to many positions, though, at 16.67%

This is one of those players the Bears saw as a scheme fit and they moved up in a trade to land him at 124. In the process, they skipped over Keith Abney and Chandler Rivers, two cornerbacks PFF had graded higher.

"So with Malik (Muhammad), he's someone that we talked about," Poles said. "(DB coach) Al (Harris) DA (defensive coordinator Dennis Allen) and I, we like the way that he covers. We like the play style, and we think there's room for him to continue to improve too."

Steady and consistent are two of the tags predraft ratings came up with for Muhammad, and that's in direct contrast to the player whose job he'll be challenging, Tyrique Stevenson. The opportunity he'll have because of Stevenson's up-and-down career is probably enough to ensure he won't fit into a bust category. If Stevenson turns around his trend, he can make Muhammad's rookie impact negligible.

3. S Dillon Thieneman, 1st round

The fact virtually everyone had Thieneman going off as the second-best safety and in Round 1 — and almost all of them higher than 25th — is sufficient for thinking he'll avoid being a bust. About half of first-rounders fail to live up to expectations, but Thieneman is a first-round safety. It's more rare for someone at his position to turn up in Round 1, so the scrutiny has been there all along. His film and combine all speak or his skill level.

ESPN's Matt Miller ranked Thieneman's selection at No. 25 as the 11th best pick made in this draft. If he's going to bust, the Bears won't be alone in thinking they had someone worthwhile in Round 1.

However, there is this one study of concern. It's very objective and not subjective, so Thieneman could be the outlier here.  A study by Rotowire turned up picks 22-26 as the area of the draft with the highest bust rates. Nos. 22 and 26 were highest at 57%.

2. TE Sam Roush, 3rd round

Working in Roush's favor is a study for over 20 years saying Round 3 tight ends have the second-highest percentage of all positions to become starters.

That's pretty much all Roush has working in his favor besides being a good blocker. Blocking alone shouldn't be the measuring stick for a player taken on Day 2.

PFF's comp to Roush in predraft assessment was Luke Stocker, a tight end who played 11 years for Tennessee, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Minnesota. He made only 85 career receptions in 11 years. He's also coming into this with short arms, like Jones has, but when you're position frequently is handling pass rushers or run stoppers who are on the outside and can have longer arms, and your other chief function is to catch passes, this can be a major issue.

Roush last year had seven dropped passes per PFF, a high 12.5% drop rate. PFF also tracked him at a separation rate against man-to-man coverage lower than his tight end draft class’ average.

1.WR Zavion Thomas, 3rd round

The number of 4.2-something burner receivers who come into the league and never amount to anything is an embarrassment to top athletes everywhere. John Ross, where are you? Jerome Mathis ran 4.26 and made six NFL receptions. Rondel Menendez had a 4.24 clocking and never made an NFL catch. Tyrone Calico ran 4.27 and had 42 receptions. Tyquan Thornton ran 4.28 and has 58 catches in four years.

The Bears like how Thomas has good hands. If his hands are so good and his speed so great, shouldn't he have more than a high of 41 college catches, only 106 for his career, only 11.6 yards per catch and only a high of 12.6 yards per catch?

After all, these are not NFL defenders with their speed he is going against.
He is a decent return man but not spectacular with a 27.2-yard average on 35 returns. His punt return average is a mediocre 9.7. That's Dante Pettis territory, the NFL version and not the college version who had nine return TDs.

They're talking a lot about gadget use and how Johnson can find ways to use his speed. The Jameson Williams model is a legitimate one but Williams averaged 19.6 yards per catch in college at Ohio State and Alabama. He was never worse than 17.1.

Thomas has plenty of work to do in order to make his mark in the NFL and show he was worthy of the 89th pick.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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