Bear Digest

What Silly Denver Gamble Should Teach Ben Johnson in Bears' Future

The Bears apparently failed to leave enough of an impression on Sean Payton to prevent him from gambling needlessly and coach Ben Johnson should learn from the situation.
Gene Chamberlain|
Ben Johnson needs to throw out the analytical charts an go more on logic and his team's situation when it comes to gambling.
Ben Johnson needs to throw out the analytical charts an go more on logic and his team's situation when it comes to gambling. | Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Seth Wickersham's book on quarterbacks once dominated Bears preseason talk but by Week 3 and the passing performance Caleb Williams put on against Dallas, it was all ancient history.

The quarterback who Wickersham reported had trepidations about Chicago now owns the entire city and surrounding area.

Wickersham's book was well worth the read, though, and he has written something else now dealing in part with the Bears in subject matter. His article for ESPN.com on the current fourth-down gambling rage has an interesting start, one pertaining to the fourth down gambles of Bears coach Ben Johnson. It also traces the whole fourth-own trend back to a paper written by an economist on fourth-down gambles.

It seems Sean Payton had the TV on in his office the night before his team's divisional playoff game and it had the Bears-Rams game on. One play after Rome Odunze dropped a certain touchdown catch on the first Bears possession, Johnson decided to go for fourth-and-2 from the Rams 21 instead of taking the easy 38- or 39-yard Cairo Santos field goal. Caleb Williams threw an interception 20 yards downfield and the Bears got nothing. Thse three points would have looked awfully good at the end of regulation.

The fun part of all this is that as Payton was watching Johnson decide against the field goal, the Broncos coach was urging the Bears to kick the field goal.

Wow.

Fast forward eight days and in the AFC Championship Game, Payton is in an even better situation than Johnson at the time, leading 7-0 and easily in field goal range. Instead he decides to go for it on fourth-and-1 against the Patriots at the New England 14. The Patriots sniffed out the pass completion with pressure and in the end Denver lost 10-7.

Gambling with points when you've got a quarterback who has no business starting an AFC Championship Game is not really wise decision making.

 Whooops.

"I wanted 14-0," Wickerham quoted Payton as saying.

Such is life for football gamblers. The playoffs with Denver and with his own experience should teach Johnson a lesson that Dan Campbell apparently failed to learn or teach. That is, there is a time and place for everything, especially gambling.

Coming into games early, hell bent on seven points, makes for good opportunities lost and then regret. It might help in the end, too, but points on the board early alter the way games are played.

It seems Johnson may have become a little more conservative as the season wore on, and it showed up with two-point conversion gambles. He said he was leaning to trying for two against Green Bay if they had tied it Dec. 7 at Lambeau Field, but Williams underthrew Cole Kmet for the key touchdown in the closing seconds and Keisean Nixon made the interception.

Two weeks later at Soldier Field Johnson had that opportunity to go for two again, and the  win, but chose the safe route. He was rewarded with Williams' 46-yard TD pass to DJ Moore, ending the game and helping to secure the division title. 

“Well, the two-point conversion percentage is under 50%," Johnson said of his team's chances. "I felt like we had an above 50% chance to win it in overtime.”

At least it shows there is thought being given to situations, but the failed gamble against the Rams shows logic isn't always being followed.  

The Bears were 1-for-4 this year on passes facing fourth-and-2 or less. They were going against a Rams defense that faced fourth-an-2 or less three times this season and never allowed a first down.  Besides all of that, he had an offensive line in its biggest state of disarray since midseason due to Ozzy Trapilo's season-ending injury.

I'm failing to see the logic of going for it here, and don't begin to suggest the Bears were due.

Johnson needs to keep all of this in mind, along with his own team's 48.8% conversion rate this year, 23rd best in the league.

If anything, Johnson should have learned about being smarter with his gambles. Whatever that economist found in Wickersham's article was nothing more than incidental analytical garbage.

Logic, information and percentages in exact situations need to dictate fourth-down gambles.

Being reckless helped cost two coaches chances to advance in the playoffs.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.