Bear Digest

Why Bears can rate as Super Bowl team even with struggling defense

Super Bowl teams come in all shapes and sizes and the Bears' chances to get there can hardly be discounted because they gave up 42 points to the 49ers.
Gene Chamberlain|
Tremaine Edmunds tries to drag down Christian McCaffrey in the 49ers' win over the Bears Sunday night.
Tremaine Edmunds tries to drag down Christian McCaffrey in the 49ers' win over the Bears Sunday night. | Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The Bears are heading for the postseason and hosting a playoff game, either as second or third seed in the NFC.

The Super Bowl dream lives with Ben Johnson's team and they don't talk about it like it's a longshot. Winning it is their goal.

A week ago safety Kevin Byard was talking about trying to get the best possible position going into the playoffs. Right now it's No. 2 seed.

"But the best is to try to go win a Super Bowl," Byard said. "That's what we're focused on every single day. Just trying to continually get better, keep sharpening the sword."

Though possessing far less experience, Caleb Williams talks of the same thing.

"My goal is to win and win big," Williams said.

Coaches talk about it to players. Obviously Ben Johnson talks this way but special teams coach Richard Hightower has, as well.

"Certainly other organizations that I’ve been in, because I’ve been in the league a while, I’m able to share that stuff with these players," Hightower sid. "What it’s like to be on runs like this, what it’s like to be in the NFC championship, what it’s like to coach in the Super Bowl, to play in the Super Bowl. We share all those experiences with them."

Is Super Bowl realistic?

Is it real, though? Bears fans accustomed to draft talk at this time of the season find this as difficult to contemplate. It's easy to look at team flaws, like their 28th-ranked defense, one also ranked 28th against the run, and discount any talk about something beyond one playoff win.

It is entirely possible, although less likely than it would be for a dominant team. Then again, who are the dominant teams in this season? There are none.

The Rams had looked to be ascending, then lost to the Seahawks in a thriller and on Monday night, still with a chance to be the fifth seed after elimination from the NFC West chase, they lost to the disappointing Atlanta Falcons.  The Steelers had everything to gain on Sunday. They lost to the Browns.  Not much separates teams.

The Seahawks look very solid but definitely not dominant.

The Patriots have a lot of wins but played against a far easier schedule than the Bears have.

The Bears ran into the team playing the best offense in the NFL at the moment on Sunday night and came within 72 inches of beating them on their own turf. 

The 49ers didn't have George Kittle and lost Trent Williams during the game?  The Bears didn't have three key players of their own.  No one cares. There will be no pity party for the 49ers, who had lost Fred Warner and Nick Bosa earlier this year, just as there can’t be for the Packers by losing the player they gave up their future for, Micah Parsons.

The Bears didn't have a pity party for themselves after they lost seven defensive starters and five for big chunks of the season.

Defensive flaws

So why not the Bears? Super Bowl history says their credentials may not be impeccable but they're acceptable.

There is no tried-and-true formula to make it to the Super Bowl and win it. The teams ranked first in defense and offense are mythical creatures.  

Vic Fangio's defense ranked No. 1 in yards allowed, second in the league in points allowed and first against the pass last year but they were the defensive exception to the rule.

There hadn't been another team make the Super Bowl that ranked first in scoring defense or yardage allowed since the Patriots in 2016.

Most aren't as defensively challenged as the Bears have been, ranking 22nd in scoring and 28th overall, 28th against the run and 21st against the pass. However, there have been worse. The Falcons were 27th in scoring defense and 25th overall, and 28th against the pass but still had the Patriots beaten after the 2016 season until Tom Brady found a way to rally the troops.

The Rams were 23rd against the run in 2018 when they made the Super  Bowl and the team that beat them, the Patriots, were 22nd against the pass and 21st in overall defense.

When the Chiefs era began with a Super Bowl win in 2019, they ranked 17th on defense and 26th stopping the run.

The 2017 Patriots team that faced Nick Foles in the Super Bowl ranked 30th against the pass and 29th in overall defense.

It's better to have a dominant defense but not entirely necessary. A good one or one with only one or two flaws can suffice.

More important is to be playing well in crucial moments on defense in the postseason.

As much as fans of other teams like to criticize the Bears for winning only because they create takeaways, it's a much more effective quality for a Super Bowl team than overall performance against the run and pass.

There have been only two teams in the last decade to make a Super Bowl with negative turnover differentials.

They don't usually have the ridiculous league-best +22 turnover differential the Bears have, but plus side, and even a high ranking in this helps immensely.

Of the 20 teams in the last decade, 14 finished top 10 in turnover differential, but the last to lead the league and get there was the 2015 Carolina Panthers at +20.

Offense, offense, offense

What is apparent about getting to a Super Bowl is it helps or is even necessary now to be a good offensive team.

It occasionally happens where defense can carry a team, but the days of the 1985 Bears and 2000 Baltimore Ravens are rare indeed. And even those teams had to be good at something on offense. Those Bears were first in rushing and the Ravens fifth.

You have to be able to hang your hat on something but usually now it’s passing.

When the Eagles were only 29th in passing last year, they were second in rushing. When they made the Super Bowl in 2022 they were only 16th in rushing but led the NFL in passing.

The Chiefs in 2023 were 19th in rushing but sixth in passing. The won the Super Bowl in the previous year and were 20th at rushing but first in passing.

The Bears rank 11th in passing and third in rushing. They're close in passing to top 10.

Before last season, when the Eagles were 29th in passing and Kansas  City 13th, there hadn't been a team that made the Super Bowl with a passing attack not ranked in the top 10 since 2017.

It's a passing league, even if the Eagles found a cheat sheet with the tush push.

The bottom line is teams with all different types of strengths and weaknesses make Super Bowls.

The fewer weaknesses the better. However, if teams have ways to compensate, then they can get there.

In that regard, with Williams and the Bears passing attack moving forward and the running game ranked third, they can make it to “the big game" if they keep that turnover train coming and, especially, if they keep avoiding turnovers like they have.

They have turned it over only 10 times, just six by interception and four by fumble.

Even a team ranked so poorly on defense looks better when their own team as the football.

Super Bowl qualifiers rankings

2024

Chiefs: 23rd rushing, 13th passing, 10th run defense, 13th pass defense

Eagles: 2nd rushing, 29th passing, 10th run defense, 1st pass defense

2023

49ers: 3rd rushing, 8th passing, 3rd run defense, 14th pass defense

Chiefs: 19th rushing, 6th passing, 18th run defens, 4th pass defense

2022

Eagles: 16th rushing, 1st passing, 5th run defense, 9th pass defense

Chiefs: 20th rushing, 1st passing, 8th run defense, 18th pass defense

2021

Rams: 25th rushing, 5th passing, 25th run defense, 5th pass defense

Bengals: 23rd rushing, 7th passing, 5th run defense, 26th pass defense

2020

Buccaneers: 28th rushing, 2nd passing, 1st run defense, 21st pass defense

Chiefs: 16th rushing, 1st passing, 21st run defense, 14th pass defense

2019

49ers: 17th rushing, 1st passing, 2nd run defense, 13th pass defense

Chiefs: 23rd rushing, 5th passing, 26th run defense, 8th pass defense

2018

Rams: 3rd rushing, 5th passing, 23rd run defense, 14th pass defense

Patriots: 5th rushing, 8th passing, 11th run defense, 22nd pass defense

2017

Eagles: 3rd rushing, 13th passing, 1st run defense, 17th pass defense

Patriots: 10th rushing, 2nd passing, 20th run defense, 30th pass defense

2016

Falcons: 5th rushing, 3rd passing, 17th run defense, 28th pass defense

Patriots: 7th rushing, 4th passing, 3rd run defense, 12th pass defense

2015

Panthers: 2nd rushing, 24th passing, 4th run defense, 11th pass defense

Broncos: 17th rushing, 14th passing, 3rd run defense, 1st pass defense

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.