Bear Digest

Why Big Mo appears in no hurry to leave Chicago Bears any time soon

A new positional point rating of this year's draft crop by one veteran analyst shows rich talent supplies deep exactly where the Bears still want to see improvement for the future.
Gene Chamberlain|
The NFL draft started with a bang last year for the Bears with Caleb Williams and this draft could be just as defining.
The NFL draft started with a bang last year for the Bears with Caleb Williams and this draft could be just as defining. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Offseason proclamations of Bears superiority and offseason titleists are definitely premature considering the other big personnel event is still a little less than a month away.

It's only halftime. It all only figures to become even louder in the future unless GM Ryan Poles botches a clean handoff, so to speak.

The reason they almost can't help but improve their status is four picks in the first 72 in this draft, but also because what they'll be shopping for the hardest has the largest stockpiles of talent.

NFL.com's draft analyst Lance Zierlein annually does an analysis of the talent supply in the draft to determine what are the best positions for talent and the worst.

Unlike assessments made by NFL.com and Pro Football Focus way in advance of the draft, which merely say where it appears there is the most talent, he weighs his analysis heavily toward players who are likely future stars or early draft picks, and then uses a point system.

Zierlein sees the most available talent sitting exactly where the Bears need help the most, even after a successful free agency.

Everything is lining up perfectly for Ryan Poles in this draft, apparently.

The most abundant supply of talent is at edge rusher. The Bears came through free agency with this possibly the one position they left least covered with talent.

Although they signed Dayo Odeyingbo in free agency, he's more of an all-purpose defensive end than a pure outside pass rusher. Their next-best threat as a third rush man on the edge to complement Montez Sweat is second-year edge Austin Booker, and he didn't accomplish much last season.

At least one good pass rusher is necessary in the draft, and early.

"Abdul Carter is at the top of the list, but Mike Green, James Pearce Jr. and Donovan Ezeiruaku have high ceilings as pass rushers, while Shemar Stewart and Mykel Williams are impressive physical specimens with two-way value," Zierlein wrote.

Not only could the Bears find someone talented in Round 1 or 2.

"What stands out, in my opinion, is the sheer number of future starters and high-quality rotational players that should be available into the deeper stages of the fourth round," he added.

He scored the running back crop as next best and this is unusual, since it's been an overlooked area in many recent drafts. Zierlein points out what many other analysts have, that Ashton Jeanty at the top is better than any back prospect since possibly Saquon Barkley, but finds the overall numbers at this position staggering.

"There will be fourth- and fifth-rounders who develop into productive backups and committee backs," he wrote.

Defensive tackle is another area the Bears could stand to fortify even after they signed Grady Jarrett, because he is 31 years old and two years ago had a major knee injury. Before acquiring him, they were counting on the return to health of Andrew Billings after a torn pectoral muscle but a standout interior player would be a good complement to Odeyingbo and Jarrett, not to mention Sweat on the other side.

"There hasn't been a draft with more than 11 defensive tackles taken inside the first 100 picks since 2016 (when there were 14), but this year could match that total," he said, pointing to top-end talent like Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, Derrick Harmon and Walter Nolen.

They're not only run stuffers, as is often the case with the position.

"The position is not only deep but also filled with more pass-rush potential than we usually see," Zierlein wrote.

The fourth spot as tight end and the Bears appear in need of a third tight end. Here Zierlein says it's the top four or five players who create the buzz because the crop of Day 3 talent isn't necessarily great. Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, Mason Taylor and Elijah Arroyo are cited, but Oregon's Terrance Ferguson also enjoyed a strong combine.

Even the fifth position of strength is one the Bears need and that's offensive tackle. They'll be looking for a possible depth piece and then future starter.

"From a depth standpoint, teams can hit reset on some first-contract selections who didn't pan out from past drafts, but there won't be many 'diamonds in the rough' to mine this year," Zierlein wrote, pointing out the top names are pretty much it in this draft at this position.

It sets up for the Bears to take an offensive tackle early if they want, and then come back with the huge depth at other need areas in subsequent rounds.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.