Bear Digest

Why the Chicago Bears Can Ignore This Free Agent Running Back Crop

Analysis: For versatility, speed, production, and cost, the Bears would have a hard time replacing D'Andre Swift with many of the top free agents.
Gene Chamberlain|
D'Andre Swift scores against the 49ers. Swift's versatility makes him more valued to the Bears than many free agent backs.
D'Andre Swift scores against the 49ers. Swift's versatility makes him more valued to the Bears than many free agent backs. | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The attraction of free agency is the opportunity for improvement it affords teams.

They can add talent they lack, and if they can do it by saving money then all the better.

It doesn't make much sense to cut your own productive player at a position and add a higher or similar cap cost while signing a free agent replacement who is either only slightly better or not better at all. This is the situation facing the Bears at running back as free agency approaches with speculation and debate building about the team having possible interest in Travis Etienne or some other free agent back beyond their own proven threat.

Free agency has backs who could help a team in need of someone at a somewhat reasonable cost. However, if you're a team below the salary cap and making tough decisions on spending, like the Bears, how do you decide you need to cut Swift and his $8.8 million cap hit to bring in someone who might cost $2 million less and may not exactly enhance your running back situation?

It's not like the Bears ran the ball poorly. The Bears ran better than every team except Buffalo and Baltimore, and they had even less contribution in rushing yards from their quarterback than those two teams did.

So it would appear to be a situation of if it isn't broke, don't fix it.

At the very most, if the Bears are thinking about their running game future then the perfect plan would be to draft another back like they did with Kyle Monangai.

Then the cost is lower. The rookie would have a year to work into the offense and when Swift is a free agent next year they would have someone to move in as starter.

The Bears hit on the Kyle Monangai pick in Round 7 last year, and expecting them to do that again while looking for a speed threat is risky gambling.

The versatility Swift provides, along with explosiveness, is only available in the top backs of most drafts and also in a few free agents. Those come at high costs.

Even then, most backs can't match his versatility. Last season, only Jonathan Taylor and Blake Corum rated better in total EPA for running backs than Swift according to Sumer Sports analytics.

Here are the top free agents expected to be available at running back.

1. Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks

Although PFF grades him the best free agent back in the league after a career year, it looks like a classic case of being overrated based on one season. They rank much of this on his third ranking in forcing missed tackles. However, Walker's 2025 was so unlike other seasons he has had. He also averaged only 4.1 and 3.7 yards a run the previous two seasons, never has averaged as many yards per catch as Swift and last year was 0.3 yards a carry worse than Swift. He also scored only five TDs rushing in their Super Bowl season, not exactly a high total for someone who is supposed to be the best free agent in the NFL. Spotrac says he's worth just over $9 million a year, and PFF agrees, but this is all based largely on 2025. In 2024, Walker wasn't even top two on his own team in explosive run percentage let alone better than Swift. And Swift has always been a more explosive receiver than Walker.

2. Breece Hall, Jets

Definitely Hall would be an upgrade at the position. He truly is explosive and it showed through even while playing in a terrible offense. However, the cost of $12.3 million a year is not something the Bears can afford. While Hall is explosive, he didn't average as much per carry as Swift last year or for his career. He also had three years when he didn't measure up in success rate per run until hitting 54.2% last year.

3. Travis Etienne, Jaguars

Despite silly rumors of Bears interest in him before they had even held offseason roster meetings, Etienne would not provide anything more substantial than they get from Swift. PFF grades him the 15th best free agent overall and lauds him for forcing missed tackles or explosive plays, but they project him at over $11 million per year and that alone should deter the Bears. His explosive plays percentage was merely 1.5% higher than Swift last year and at that cost, he better do something else much better, like fly. Over the last three years, he averaged 3.9 yards a carry. Swift was averaging 4.5 over the same period. The only way Etienne rates head and shoulders over current Bears backs is pass blocking. All told, there is not enough gain here to take on the huge added cost and ditch Swift.

4. Javonte Williams, Cowboys

Given the chance to prove himself as the main ball carrier, Williams responded with 4.8 yards a carry, 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns. He's just not anything close to Swift as a receiver, averaging a mere 3.9 yards a catch last year. He's also the back who had the ball stolen out of his arms from behind by Tyrique Stevenson in last year's easy Chicago win over Dallas. At $7.3 million projected a year, it would be a tiny bit of cap savings to have a more physical back who is less of a passing game threat.

5. Rico Dowdle, Panthers

The former Cowboys back averaged more than 3.0 yards after contact over his career and excelled for Carolina in his one season there. Although he hasn't averaged close to Swift's 4.9 yards last year, he was at 4.6 for two straight seasons and gained 1,079 and 1,076 yards. He also started to become part of the passing game with 39 receptions each of the last two years at 7.0 yards a catch.  At a projected $6.5 million a year, Dowdle would be a good signing for most teams but not the Bears.

Bears of the rest

None of the other free agents rate as potential Swift replacements, although Tampa Bay's Rachad White would be a valued addition as an all-around type player in the backfield. He caught 205 passes in four seasons, but averaged only 3.9 yards a carry over four seasons.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.