Bear Digest

What analytics say about fast start by Chicago Bears backup QBs

The battle between Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum for No. 2 QB had a rousing start as Pro Football Focus has the Bears' passing attack tied for NFL's best grade.
Gene Chamberlain|
Tyson Bagent fires off a pass against the Dolphins in the first half of the preseason opener.
Tyson Bagent fires off a pass against the Dolphins in the first half of the preseason opener. | David Banks-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

While Caleb Williams has yet to step into a game, the Bears did see three other quarterbacks Sunday, and two have much at stake.

Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent played well overall, although Bagent’s first two series when the Bears backup offense faced most of Miami starters went nowhere.

Comparing what the two did in the game is a difficult matter as they both attempt to secure the backup quarterback role behind Williams. The reason for this is the change in talent levels faced.

Keenum played against more players from the bottom of the roster than Bagent.

If you’re looking to call a leader going into Week 2, Keenum might get the edge based on the criteria Ben Johnson himself put forth. That would be the analytic expected points added.

Yards per attempt is a vital part of this and Keenum put up a gawdy 8.0 yards per attempt. Bagent’s yards per attempt was only 5.4. This is typical of a quarterback facing a much stronger opponent, and the Bears backup offense was. But after the first few series they were playing opponents on their level and while they were better it still wasn’t sufficient for bigger numbers.

Keenum not only had the far better yards per attempt but also a much better adjusted completion percentage of 90%, according to Pro Football Focus. Bagent’s was at 77.8%.

All of the Bears quarterbacks combined came away with an 80.8 PFF grade. That number doesn’t mean much by itself to anyone unfamiliar with PFF, but the fact it was tied for the best by any team’s group of quarterbacks in the NFL for Week 1 of preseason doesn't say something negative.

Don’t get carried away with it, though.

Last year Bears quarterbacks had the best PFF grade in the league for preseason passing and how did that translate to the regular season?

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.