Week 13 Best Bets: Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Bengals Best Bets, but such is betting at times. Hopefully this week our data-driven bets lead us out of the valley of the roller coaster and back towards an end of season peak.

Mike Gesicki 40+ Alternate Receiving Yards (+130 FanDuel)

Do we know whether we are getting early season Joe Burrow or mid-season Joe Burrow? No, but I think either way, Gesicki will be involved.

My Bet Backers:

Tee Higgins has been ruled out for the game, meaning more opportunities for Gesicki. In games without Higgins last year, Gesicki had 40+ yards in 3/5
Last week with a star receiver missing the game, Gesicki ran the most routes among Bengal tight ends (26), earning six targets and finishing with a 4/35 line
Four of six tight ends that have run at least 25 routes have eclipsed 40 receiving yards against Baltimore this season

Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+100 FanDuel)

To be honest, I don’t typically play Anytime Touchdown singles bets. However, any tight end props against the Bengals seem like good plays this season.

My Bet Backers:

The Bengals have given up 13 touchdowns to tight ends this season
Andrews leads the Ravens in targets inside the 10 yard line

Keaton Mitchell 25+ Alternate Rushing Yards (+117 DraftKings)

While the Bengals run defense got back on track last week, there is far more evidence to support that they may struggle stopping the Ravens this week.

My Bet Backers:

Mitchell has eclipsed this line in three of his past five games, doing so while averaging just four carries per game
The Bengals have allowed a backup running back to surpass this line seven times this season, and a homerun threat like Mitchell only needs to make one guy miss to make the defense pay dearly

Noah Fant 15+ Alternate Receiving Yards (+122 FanDuel)

While Gesicki ran more routes than Fant last week, we still have a season’s worth of data that shows this is a strong plus odds play in Week 13.

My Bet Backers:

Fant has hit this mark in eight games this season, including in both games Burrow started at the beginning of the season
Nine tight ends have caught a pass of 15+ yards against the Ravens this season, so even just one catch could be enough to cash this bet

Chase Brown OVER 13.5 Rushing Yards 1st Quarter + Derrick Henry UNDER 24.5 Rushing Yards 1st Quarter (+208 DraftKings)

To be honest, I originally planned on taking the over for Derrick Henry, but the data swayed me otherwise.

My Bet Backers:

Since Week 5, running backs are averaging over 4.6 yards per carry against Baltimore
The Ravens have allowed at least 15 first quarter rushing yards in seven straight games, giving up an average of 31 rushing yards
Brown is averaging over 26 first quarter rushing yards over the past four games
The Ravens have run the third-fewest first quarter plays, averaging just under 15 plays. The Bengals defense has faced two other teams that ranked in the bottom-10 in first quarter plays, and held those two offenses to 22 and 11 rushing yards each
Derrick Henry has averaged just four first quarter carries per game this season, and is averaging just 11 rush yards in the first quarter over the past five games

Be sure to check in on my X account as I will be putting out a few lotto parlays, as well as throwing out some other fun bets using Thanksgiving Day profit boosts. Enjoy your time with family this week, and be thankful you aren't a Cleveland Browns fan!

*DISCLAIMER* This is not intended to be betting advice, rather these are some props I like and will be placing my money on. While I use data and research to support my picks, there is no such thing as a sure bet. Always remember to only bet amounts you are comfortable losing.

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