How and Why the Bengals Can Crush the Dolphins in Miami

After dropping two games that could've landed in their favor at the end, the Cincinnati Bengals catch a break in week five.

The winless Miami Dolphins are heading down the path that many projected for them coming into the season and the Bengals need a rebound.

Normally, I'd happily point out the flaws in the opponent’s game and maybe land a joke or two along the way, but this week feels like punching down and we've seen Bengals teams play down to their opponents before.

Yes, the 0-4 Miami Dolphins are currently a bad football team, but they have many rookies on their roster that I personally liked during draft season. Those guys can play, but they are rookies; you'll have your chances to welcome them to the NFL.

Instead, let's start at quarterback where Malik Willis needs to show enough to keep this franchise from drafting a QB with that likely top five selection in 2027.

Through four games, Willis hasn't exactly made a strong case for himself.

He owns the 30th ranked PFF grade for all quarterbacks and Willis is completing just 56% of his passes.

He's under a ton of pressure so far also. Willis is holding the ball and inviting some of it himself, but this offensive line ranks 27th in Pass Block Efficiency (PFF) and 24th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate. Whoever is at fault, being under pressure on 46.9% of dropbacks is an unsustainable number.

Even when he's not under duress, Willis is completing the lowest rate of passes in the entire league. So he can't just blame the bodies around his feet.

To be fair, Willis is throwing the football down field at a very high rate. His 10.5 Average Depth of Target (ADoT) leads the league.

He's going to push that ball down field and if it isn't open, Willis can and will run. His 10.9% scramble rate is the highest of all QBs in the league. He's even had some nice runs called back due to penalties around him.

Largely, this passing offense just isn't working so far. Their 36% Success Rate is the worst in the league as the skill players are struggling to get open. Their average separation at the catch point is 27th in the league at 3.1 yards per attempt.

It's not just the passing game, the Dolphins run game lost budding star Devon Achane for the season and now they're 31st in Running Success Rate (32.3%).

Miami likes to run with a lead blocker in fullback DJ Herman, but the results have been poor so far as he owns the lowest run blocking grade from PFF of all backs in the NFL.

They're currently using 21-personnel at the third highest rate in the league, but getting a -0.12 EPA result with a 26% success rate when running the ball. Like the Bengals, Miami may have to re-think their fullback usage (Erick All) as they're averaging just 0.74 yards BEFORE contact when they run the football. That ranks 27th in the league.

Run or pass, this Dolphins offense owns the worst success rate in the entire NFL.

How about the defense? It's also trash.

Overall, Miami’s defense ranks 29th in EPA per play but almost all of that ranking is being sunk by their 31st ranked passing defense. Their 9th best run defense is formidable but has an area to attack.

Let's start with a familiar issue. The Dolphins are struggling to cover opposing tight ends. Good thing National Tight End day isn't for another couple of weeks. We don't need this getting any uglier.

So far this season, Miami has allowed 29 catches for 333 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends. Only the Bengals and Detroit Lions have allowed more yardage to the position.

And that's 29 catches on just 31 targets. So opposing QBs are completing 94% of their throws to tight ends. For the Dolphins, that's an average of 7 catches for 83 yards allowed per game to opposing tight ends.

Last week, Vikings’ TJ Hockenson went off. He saw 13 targets and caught 13 balls for 119 yards.

Hello, Mike Gesicki! Gesicki is currently on pace for 47 catches, 659 yards and 13 TDs this season.

And also maybe this is the week for Erick All Jr. to catch a pass?

Leaving themselves open and vulnerable in the middle of the field makes sense as Miami is second in the league for Cover-6 rate (22%). Using this coverage, Miami has already allowed 285 yards on 20 completions.

You can exploit Cover-6 over the intermediate part of the field and that's where the Bengals have had a ton of success this season with a second-best 122 passing yards per game and a fifth-best +0.73 EPA per pass.

Miami owns the 25th ranked EPA per play defense against Shotgun offenses. They are allowing a 50% success rate and completion percentage of 81.1 to opposing offenses. You may have guessed it, but that's the worst in the league.

On 3rd Downs, it doesn't get better for them as they're the 30th ranked defenses in EPA per play. Opposing offenses see their success rates rise to 54.5% and their completion percentage go up to 83.9% – both bottom of the league numbers.

So what's the issue if the Miami run defense is good but their pass defense stinks?

Unlike the Bengals, who defend the run well with less defenders in the box, the Dolphins do it with extra defenders in the box at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.

This leaves the Miami defense exposed on the back half and they cannot generate enough pressure to hide the coverage on the back end. Miami is 27th in pressure rate and 28th in sack rate on defense.

Defensive tackle Zach Sieler used to be a very good player in Miami but at 31-years old now, maybe he's starting to see a decline in play.

His 30.0 PFF run defense grades ranks him 74th amongst all interior defensive linemen through four weeks.

Teams are attacking him right now in the run game and without Kenneth Grant as their anchor inside, Miami has an exploitable weakness in run defense.

Amongst the rookies starting for the Dolphins is 5th rounder Michael Taaffe at safety. His PFF grade of 35.4 ranks him 69th of 70 starting safeties and his 25% missed tackle rate makes Jordan Battle look like prime John Lynch.

The Bengals are heavily favored in this game and it's easy to see why, but after two straight losses and nightmares of Mike White still lingering in my mind, I'm just going to sit and watch and try not to approach this game with too much excitement.

Go take care of business, Bengals.

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