Bills vs. Jaguars: Three Bold Predictions for Sunday’s AFC Playoff Duel

The Bills will face the Jaguars in the wild-card round of the playoffs.

Can Josh Allen lead the Bills to victory on Sunday? / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The Bills are heading to Duval County to take on the Jaguars in the wild-card round of the 2025–26 playoffs on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.

The No. 6 Bills come into their seventh-straight postseason with significantly more experience than the No. 3 seeded Jaguars, who are led by first-year coach Liam Coen. The Jaguars are looking for their first playoff win under Coen while the Bills are still seeking their first road playoff win since the 1990s and of the Josh Allen era.

The experienced Bills are currently favored over the Jaguars, which should be the perfect motivation for the chippy Coen, who doesn’t expect his squad to receive a ton of respect anytime soon. The “small market” Jaguars might be overlooked at the national level heading into the playoffs, but make no mistake, they are one of the most balanced teams in the playoff field.

Before the game begins, here are three bold predictions for how Jaguars vs. Bills will turn out.

Jaguars stifle RB James Cook

Bills running back James Cook has to contend with a stout Jaguars run defense in the wild-card round. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Bills offense runs through its rushing attack, an attack led by a stout offensive line, NFL rushing leader James Cook and one of the greatest running quarterbacks of all time in Allen. Buffalo is at its best when it can run the ball at will—they rank No. 1 in the NFL rushing yards per game—but that will be tough to continue as they take on a Jaguars defense that allows the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL.

The Jaguars have not allowed a 75-yard rusher once this season. Jacksonville has yet to face one of the top-five rushing offenses this year, but don’t expect them to let Cook beat them. Allen might be able to have some success with his legs, but it would be too easy for the Bills if the Jaguars let Cook get going. Buffalo will certainly try to run the ball, but if its run game can’t get going, it would be wise to get Cook, Ty Johnson and Ray Davis involved in the passing game out of the backfield.

Trevor Lawrence throws for three or more touchdowns

Trevor Lawrence has been red-hot as the Jaguars get ready for a playoff run. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Trevor Lawrence has been the hottest quarterback in the NFL over the last month of the season. Now, he goes up against a Bills defense that has allowed the fewest passing yards per game this season, 156.9.

Even so, this shouldn’t hold back the Jaguars. For one, teams don’t always need to be dominant against the Bills in the passing game because their run defense is so porous, allowing 136.1 yards per game on the ground. Buffalo also hasn’t faced a passing attack this dynamic in some time.

Jacksonville’s passing game marries offensive whiz Liam Coen with Lawrence, who is seeing his potential finally realized at the perfect time as he gets more comfortable in Coen’s system. The addition of Jakobi Meyers before the trade deadline has brought to life a receiving core that was plagued by drops. Between Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, tight end Brenton Strange and running back Travis Etienne, Lawrence has a bevy of targets at his disposal at any point.

The Bills went up against Joe Burrow and the Bengals a month ago, and he threw four touchdowns before a pair of late interceptions cost Cincinnati the win. Lawrence and the Jaguars are more than capable of taking advantage of Buffalo like Burrow did, particularly with stud rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston’s status in jeopardy for Sunday,

Josh Allen scores at least four touchdowns, Bills still lose

Bills quarterback Josh Allen will need to bring his A-game against a rugged Jaguars defense. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Josh Allen will need to put on his Super Bowl cape Sunday, but even that might not be enough for him to lead the Bills to a win over a Jaguars team that has been significantly better on paper—particularly as Lawrence has been on fire of late. Sure, Buffalo has much more playoff experience than Jacksonville—and that plus some Allen heroics could be enough to lead them to victory—but the Bills likely need to outscore the Jaguars or turn over Lawrence to pull off the win on the road.

Allen knows the importance of putting up points in the playoffs. As such, expect him to lead the Bills into the end zone multiple times with both his legs and his big right arm, but also come up short to a Jaguars team that will no longer be overlooked.

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