Bills' Schedule is 13th Toughest in NFL, Based on Vegas win Projections

It's never too early to look at the difficulty of a team's schedule, even before the NFL comes out with the master list but has determined everyone's opponents and sites for the games.

So Sebastian Carl, an expert numbers and data cruncher, put together a list of where each team ranks, based on the projected win totals of their opponents for the 2022 season by Las Vegas oddsmakers, who get these kinds of things right more than anyone else in the world.

Based on Carl's calculations, the Bills rank 13th because of their opponents' projected winning percentage of .508. But two of their AFC East rivals, the New York Jets (4th, .522) and New England Patriots (6th, .518) face tougher paths. And the other team in the division, Miami, falls in right behind the Bills at No. 14 (.506).

I used the Vegas win totals by @DKSportsbook as well as an estimated 9.5 win total for the Browns to compute the 2022 strength of schedule for each team based on the projected wins of their opponents as of today. pic.twitter.com/k3N9JRGjFv
— Sebastian (@mrcaseb) April 4, 2022

So what does this all mean?

Nothing, of course, except for the fun factor that can be necessary in the gap between the initial surge of free agency and the NFL Draft that the league and its fans are going through now.

In addition to their division rivals, the Bills will host Green Bay, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Tennessee. They will visit Baltimore, Cincinnati, Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams.

No matter how you break that down, it seems pretty tough. Eight of their 17 games will be against teams who made the playoffs last season, including both Super Bowl teams and the team that has eliminated the Bills from the playoffs in each of the previous two seasons: Kansas City. Ten of their games will be against opponents with winning records a year ago.

But according to Vegas, that shouldn't stop the Bills, who were favored to make the Super Bowl even before making the splash free-agent signing of edge rusher Von Miller.

Now that Tom Brady has come out of his brief retirement to rejoin the Tampa Bay Bucs, the Bucs and Bills are tied for the best odds (+650) to win it all, according to Sports Illustrated's sportsbook, which also ranks Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Kansas City counterpart Patrick Mahomes as co-favorites to win the league's MVP award.

The league has not announced the date for its schedule release, but it is expected to come within a few weeks of the conclusion of the NFL Draft, which this year will be held from April 28-30.

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Nick Fierro is the publisher of Bills Central. Check out the latest Bills news at www.si.com/nfl/bills and follow Fierro on Twitter at @NickFierro. Email to Nicky300@aol.com.