5 'Boom-or-Bust' Free Agent Prospects for Bills to Consider

The 2026 offseason is a critical one for general manager Brandon Beane and the Buffalo Bills.

The team is adjusting to a new head coach, transitioning to a 3-4 defense and reflecting on another season that fell short of reaching the Super Bowl.

If Beane wants to take a big swing in free agency, it could be for one of Matt Okada's boom-or-bust free agents

WR Mike Evans

The longtime Buccaneer is scheduled to hit the open market. He'll be 33 years old in August, and suffered a broken clavicle in October of 2025 that sidelined him for half of the season.

If Evans can continue his historic production, he'd immediately improve the arsenal of weapons for any team, which is why he's looking at all 32 teams according to his agent.

Spotrac's calculated market value for Evans is $13.3 million, which would place him outside the top 25 for average annual value for a wide receiver.

Okada writes, "...the question will be whether he still has the juice to be an outside WR1 and dominate in the red zone -- and whether the price reflects the production. If so, he'll be an excellent signing. If not, he could be an aging cap sink."

Dec 21, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) catches a touchdown against Carolina Panthers cornerback Mike Jackson (2) | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

WR Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce might be the definition of a boom-or-bust player.

He caught just 47 passes in 2025, but recorded 1,003 receiving yards and six touchdowns in the process. He's also led the NFL the last two seasons in yards per reception (22.3 in 2024 and 21.3 in 2025).

Spotrac's calculated market value for Pierce is $20.2 million AAV, a significant investment for a receiver that's never had more than 84 targets or 47 catches in a season.

Pierce might get paid like a WR1, but he'll have to become a much more consistent receiving threat than he was in Indy to justify the contract. Okada explains, "Pierce has thrived as a field-stretching No. 2, so any team intending to sign him for a bigger role might be taking on a significant risk."

Jan 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce (14) catches a touchdown pass against the Houston Texans during the first half at NRG Stadium | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

EDGE Trey Hendrickson

Hendrickson has the highest ceiling of any player on the boom-or-bust list. When healthy, he's one of the best pass rushers in the NFL. Since 2021, his 18.8% pressure rate is second among all players with over 1,000 pass-rush snaps (trailing only Micah Parsons), according to Okada.

The problem is, health is far from a guarantee for the former All-Pro. He played just seven games in 2025, and will be entering his age 31 season. Spotrac's calculated market value for Hendrickson is $25.4 million AAV, just outside the top 10 for his position.

"If a front office could guarantee they'd be getting prime Hendrickson for another couple years, he would easily be worth top-10 if not top-five edge-rusher money. But his age (he turns 32 in December) and injury history generate more question marks than guarantees," says Okada.

Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson (91) celebrates as time winds down in the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 1 game between the Cleveland Browns and the Cincinnati Bengals at Huntington Bank Field | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

LB Nakobe Dean

Okada actually invokes the Bills specifically as a potential fit for Philly's linebacker, explaining that he could be "a Pro Bowl candidate in the right system if he can stay healthy."

Health is the biggest concern for Dean, who slid to the third round in the 2022 draft due to a chest injury. He missed 12 games in 2023 with a foot injury, suffered a knee injury during the 2024 season in the playoffs, and dealt with a hamstring injury in 2025 as he missed seven games.

Spotrac's calculated market value for Dean is $7.9 million for a player offering elite upside if he can stay on the field.

Nov 3, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Nakobe Dean (17) in a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

EDGE Joey Bosa

Maybe the least exciting 'big swing' candidate the Bills could sign, a reunion with Joey Bosa isn't out of the realm of possibility.

He played well during the first half of his debut season with Buffalo, recording four sacks and four forced fumbles in the Bills' first eight games, before finishing the year with just one more addition in each of those categories.

Spotrac's calculated market value for Bosa is $13.7 million, $1.1 million more than what he signed for with Buffalo last offseason.

Okada writes, "Bosa has upside...if healthy and properly utilized. If a defense can unlock a late-career resurgence or at leats fit him into an effective pass-rush rotation, BOsa could serve as an impact player for a contender..."

Nov 2, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass under pressure from Buffalo Bills defensive end Joey Bosa (97) in the fourth quarter at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images